WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 12-13-17 at 2:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-13-17 67   20 45   23 67   11 47   18 66   6 48   19 66   14 47   26
12-12-17 68 17.4 24 46 18.7 16 66   19 47   5 68   14 48   0 67   21 49   16
12-11-17 68 29.8 21 47 -9.4 23 68 17.4 0 46 18.7 22 66   5 48   31 67   20 48   25
12-10-17 69 14.4 19 46 23.7 27 69 29.8 20 46 -9.4 22 69 17.4 -6 48 18.7 14 66   0 48   22
12-09-17 68 12.3 25 50 18.0 14 70 14.4 25 50 23.7 17 69 29.8 19 50 -9.4 -7 68 17.4 13 49 18.7 -10
12-08-17 68 26.4 25 50 11.3 6 68 12.3 24 50 18.0 14 70 14.4 33 50 23.7 23 69 29.8 25 49 -9.4 1
12-07-17 69 21.6 26 50 17.0 13 67 26.4 18 49 11.3 5 68 12.3 23 49 18.0 9 68 14.4 38 49 23.7 21
12-06-17 64 13.2 11 44 -4.1 -2 68 21.6 20 43 17.0 10 67 26.4 22 45 11.3 9 68 12.3 22 46 18.0 1
12-05-17 62 15.6 15 42 5.0 12 63 13.2 16 44 -4.1 -6 68 21.6 23 43 17.0 14 65 26.4 23 45 11.3 12
12-04-17 60 37.7 37 42 4.7 14 64 15.6 16 40 5.0 3 66 13.2 9 42 -4.1 -5 68 21.6 10 47 17.0 7
12-03-17 59 37.3 47 44 34.2 32 60 37.7 35 42 4.7 13 64 15.6 15 43 5.0 3 66 13.2 17 45 -4.1 9
12-02-17 62 44.2 44 49 24.7 12 60 37.3 45 44 34.2 29 62 37.7 30 43 4.7 12 64 15.6 13 45 5.0 1
12-01-17 64 43.4 44 48 17.4 16 62 44.2 43 48 24.7 14 61 37.3 46 45 34.2 34 62 37.7 37 46 4.7 21
11-30-17 65 34.9 44 47 24.2 20 64 43.4 47 48 17.4 18 63 44.2 44 48 24.7 19 62 37.3 51 44 34.2 33
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 5 0 1 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 1 0 2
% Succ     38.5     7.7     25.0     25.0     27.3     36.4     10.0     20.0
Ave Error 38.3   4.7 32.3   7.0 39.1   6.5 32.4   7.3 41.6   8.2 32.9   3.5 43.4   7.8 34.6   10.4
Net Error 38.3   2.6 32.3   1.4 39.1   -0.4 32.4   -0.0 41.6   -1.1 32.9   -1.7 43.4   2.3 34.6   -2.3
Std Dev 17.0   4.1 14.3   8.1 19.5   5.4 17.2   8.1 23.1   7.9 19.7   2.8 28.1   7.4 23.5   9.8

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 12-12-17 at 10:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-12-17 68   20 46   12 66   14 47   4 68   11 48   2 67   18 49   14
12-11-17 68 29.8 21 47 -9.4 23 68   0 46   22 66   5 48   31 67   20 48   25
12-10-17 69 14.4 26 46 23.7 18 69 29.8 20 46 -9.4 -8 69   15 48   -5 66   36 48   33
12-09-17 68 18.0 25 50 12.4 12 70 14.4 21 50 23.7 16 69 29.8 18 50 -9.4 -10 68   13 49   -4
12-08-17 68 26.4 25 50 11.2 4 68 18.0 23 50 12.4 12 70 14.4 22 50 23.7 14 69 29.8 21 49 -9.4 -5
12-07-17 69 21.6 26 50 15.5 13 67 26.4 20 49 11.2 1 68 18.0 23 49 12.4 12 68 14.4 33 49 23.7 21
12-06-17 64 13.2 11 44 -4.1 -6 68 21.6 27 43 15.5 13 67 26.4 20 45 11.2 5 68 18.0 17 46 12.4 0
12-05-17 62 15.6 13 42 4.7 12 63 13.2 23 44 -4.1 0 68 21.6 22 43 15.5 11 65 26.4 24 45 11.2 12
12-04-17 60 37.7 36 43 3.9 14 64 15.6 16 41 4.7 1 65 13.2 5 43 -4.1 -1 67 21.6 6 47 15.5 4
12-03-17 59 37.3 44 44 34.2 29 60 37.7 37 42 3.9 14 64 15.6 15 43 4.7 6 66 13.2 16 45 -4.1 -7
12-02-17 62 44.2 44 49 20.2 13 60 37.3 43 44 34.2 27 62 37.7 30 43 3.9 9 64 15.6 10 45 4.7 2
12-01-17 64 43.4 45 48 15.7 10 63 44.2 42 48 20.2 7 61 37.3 42 44 34.2 29 62 37.7 34 45 3.9 20
11-30-17 65 34.9 39 47 24.2 17 64 43.4 41 48 15.7 12 63 44.2 44 48 20.2 16 62 37.3 49 44 34.2 31
11-29-17 64 41.8 42 47 29.4 23 66 34.9 34 46 24.2 13 65 43.4 46 48 15.7 14 64 44.2 47 48 20.2 13
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 5 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 1 0 1
% Succ     38.5     15.4     25.0     16.7     27.3     36.4     10.0     10.0
Ave Error 35.7   4.0 32.7   7.6 37.1   4.6 33.2   6.3 38.2   5.0 34.4   3.8 39.7   7.3 35.1   6.4
Net Error 35.7   1.4 32.7   0.0 37.1   0.9 33.2   -3.7 38.2   -1.3 34.4   -2.1 39.7   -0.1 35.1   -2.1
Std Dev 16.0   3.4 14.5   7.9 19.2   3.5 17.4   4.5 22.1   4.1 20.2   3.2 26.1   7.0 24.0   5.4

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 12-12-17 at 5:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-12-17 40   13 66   16 46   7 67   13 48   2 67   15 49   9 66   22
12-11-17 47 -9.4 21 68 18.0 23 46   0 66   22 48   5 67   31 48   20 66   25
12-10-17 46 14.4 16 69 24.3 22 46 -9.4 -7 68 18.0 18 46   1 66   39 47   16 67   17
12-09-17 49 12.4 12 69 23.7 22 50 14.4 15 69 24.3 19 49 -9.4 -12 68 18.0 12 48   -3 66   21
12-08-17 50 11.2 9 69 17.6 25 50 12.4 11 71 23.7 25 50 14.4 18 69 24.3 27 49 -9.4 -2 68 18.0 18
12-07-17 48 15.5 7 67 26.4 23 47 11.2 1 67 17.6 18 48 12.4 6 68 23.7 37 48 14.4 24 68 24.3 26
12-06-17 44 -4.1 -5 70 19.5 27 43 15.5 14 68 26.4 18 45 11.2 4 68 17.6 20 46 12.4 5 70 23.7 37
12-05-17 42 4.7 12 63 13.2 20 44 -4.1 0 68 19.5 27 43 15.5 17 65 26.4 27 45 11.2 12 66 17.6 25
12-04-17 43 3.9 12 64 15.6 13 41 4.7 3 65 13.2 8 43 -4.1 -1 67 19.5 19 47 15.5 7 67 26.4 10
12-03-17 44 34.2 31 60 37.7 34 42 3.9 13 64 15.6 15 42 4.7 6 66 13.2 13 44 -4.1 0 68 19.5 17
12-02-17 49 20.2 15 60 37.3 45 44 34.2 31 61 37.7 36 43 3.9 11 64 15.6 13 45 4.7 0 66 13.2 12
12-01-17 48 15.7 13 62 44.2 42 47 20.2 11 60 37.3 44 44 34.2 26 62 37.7 35 44 3.9 21 65 15.6 23
11-30-17 47 24.2 17 64 43.4 41 48 15.7 12 62 44.2 42 48 20.2 15 61 37.3 45 45 34.2 34 62 37.7 39
11-29-17 46 29.4 32 66 34.9 38 46 24.2 15 65 43.4 46 48 15.7 17 63 44.2 45 47 20.2 16 62 37.3 48
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 4 0 5 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 4
% Succ     23.1     7.7     33.3     41.7     27.3     36.4     20.0     40.0
Ave Error 33.1   6.2 38.1   4.3 33.8   4.7 38.9   3.5 34.9   4.3 40.3   3.6 35.7   6.4 42.9   6.2
Net Error 33.1   1.5 38.1   1.5 33.8   -2.0 38.9   -0.4 34.9   -1.1 40.3   1.4 35.7   1.4 42.9   2.2
Std Dev 14.2   7.6 16.3   2.5 17.5   3.7 18.8   3.2 20.1   3.0 22.1   4.0 24.1   4.7 27.4   6.2

Night Forecasts
Updated: 12-12-17 at 10:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-12-17 40   17 66   21 46   10 67   17 48   4 67   17 49   13 66   26
12-11-17 47 -9.4 -5 68 18.7 27 46   21 66   23 48   7 67   17 48   3 66   15
12-10-17 46 14.4 19 69 29.8 22 46 -9.4 -2 68 18.7 22 46   0 66   31 47   20 67   26
12-09-17 49 12.4 15 69 23.7 29 50 14.4 21 69 29.8 22 49 -9.4 -9 68 18.7 13 48   -2 66   22
12-08-17 50 11.2 10 69 18.0 25 50 12.4 15 71 23.7 24 50 14.4 17 69 29.8 20 49 -9.4 -10 68 18.7 13
12-07-17 48 15.5 15 67 26.4 22 47 11.2 11 67 18.0 24 48 12.4 9 68 23.7 26 48 14.4 19 68 29.8 23
12-06-17 44 -4.1 -2 70 21.6 23 43 15.5 14 68 26.4 23 45 11.2 6 68 18.0 21 46 12.4 5 70 23.7 41
12-05-17 42 4.7 10 63 13.2 18 44 -4.1 1 68 21.6 22 43 15.5 10 65 26.4 22 45 11.2 7 66 18.0 20
12-04-17 43 3.9 10 64 15.6 11 42 4.7 9 65 13.2 16 44 -4.1 -2 70 21.6 19 45 15.5 11 68 26.4 13
12-03-17 44 34.2 32 60 37.7 36 42 3.9 12 64 15.6 14 42 4.7 2 66 13.2 8 44 -4.1 -4 68 21.6 11
12-02-17 49 20.2 17 60 37.3 45 44 34.2 30 61 37.7 36 43 3.9 12 64 15.6 13 45 4.7 2 66 13.2 14
12-01-17 48 15.7 13 62 44.2 42 47 20.2 14 60 37.3 46 44 34.2 32 62 37.7 36 44 3.9 15 65 15.6 16
11-30-17 47 24.2 20 64 43.4 41 48 15.7 13 62 44.2 43 48 20.2 14 61 37.3 46 45 34.2 33 62 37.7 38
11-29-17 46 29.4 28 66 34.9 39 46 24.2 15 65 43.4 44 48 15.7 16 63 44.2 45 47 20.2 18 62 37.3 49
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 4
% Succ     23.1     15.4     16.7     50.0     18.2     18.2     30.0     40.0
Ave Error 33.1   3.1 37.4   4.7 33.8   4.8 38.2   3.2 35.0   3.5 39.8   4.3 35.5   3.9 42.1   6.9
Net Error 33.1   0.7 37.4   1.2 33.8   0.8 38.2   0.5 35.0   -1.1 39.8   -1.6 35.5   -0.7 42.1   -0.4
Std Dev 14.2   1.8 16.0   2.6 17.5   3.0 18.4   2.9 20.2   2.7 21.9   3.0 24.0   3.1 26.9   6.2

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

DEW POINT
Dew point is the temperature to which air must be cooled for saturation (100% relative humidity) to occur. The dew point is an important measurement used to predict the formation of dew, frost, and fog. If dew point and temperature are close together in the late afternoon when the air begins to turn colder, fog is likely during the night. Dew point is also a good indicator of the air's actual water vapor content, unlike relative humidity, which takes the air's temperature into account. High dew point indicates high vapor content; low dew point indicates low vapor content. In addition a high dew point indicates a better chance of rain and severe thunderstorms. You can even use dew point to predict the minimum overnight temperature. Provided no fronts or other weather pattern changes are expected overnight, the afternoon's dew point gives you an idea of what minimum temperature to expect overnight.