WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 06-24-17 at 6:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-24-17 84   64 58   47 83   63 56   45 79   73 56   51 78   82 54   61
06-23-17 90 64.5 67 60 43.8 52 84   62 58   50 84   69 55   49 81   76 56   54
06-22-17 65 76.2 79 101 53.5 56 63 64.5 66 91 43.8 54 61   71 87   56 59   71 85   53
06-19-17 63 75.9 72 96 49.2 57 62 76.2 72 89 53.5 51 59 64.5 75 95 43.8 57 61   74 99   55
06-18-17 62 65.6 68 99 53.0 55 63 75.9 73 92 49.2 55 60 76.2 75 91 53.5 57 58 64.5 69 93 43.8 56
06-17-17 93 70.0 75 62 53.6 62 96 65.6 70 62 53.0 56 91 75.9 72 61 49.2 55 91 76.2 70 59 53.5 52
06-16-17 89 78.1 80 60 56.4 60 93 70.0 74 63 53.6 54 97 65.6 65 62 53.0 48 92 75.9 70 61 49.2 51
06-15-17 83 74.1 77 57 53.8 59 89 78.1 79 60 56.4 59 94 70.0 76 63 53.6 60 95 65.6 63 61 53.0 49
06-14-17 82 80.3 84 53 53.6 58 83 74.1 78 56 53.8 58 90 78.1 80 60 56.4 58 94 70.0 82 62 53.6 59
06-12-17 67 69.2 80 50 60.4 54 77 80.3 78 51 53.6 65 81 74.1 86 53 53.8 60 84 78.1 74 56 56.4 55
06-11-17 66 78.9 82 51 47.5 57 69 69.2 82 50 60.4 54 78 80.3 75 52 53.6 61 81 74.1 75 54 53.8 62
06-10-17 69 79.1 87 49 52.8 59 66 78.9 83 50 47.5 60 69 69.2 85 50 60.4 58 78 80.3 73 52 53.6 60
06-09-17 72 81.4 84 50 64.6 64 70 79.1 84 50 52.8 56 65 78.9 88 49 47.5 57 72 69.2 86 50 60.4 58
06-07-17 77 79.4 71 54 48.7 54 74 81.4 78 55 64.6 51 74 79.1 83 50 52.8 62 73 78.9 91 49 47.5 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 4 3
% Succ 7.7   7.7 7.7   15.4 16.7   16.7     8.3 9.1   27.3 27.3   9.1     10.0 40.0   30.0
Ave Error 10.4   4.5 16.1   5.4 11.2   4.1 14.8   6.3 12.0   6.4 12.7   6.4 11.5   7.2 9.7   5.9
Net Error 0.4   2.6 11.6   4.3 1.0   2.0 10.6   2.6 4.2   4.4 9.9   5.0 8.5   2.0 7.2   4.0
Std Dev 7.3   2.7 17.6   3.0 9.4   3.3 16.8   4.5 10.2   4.8 16.4   4.3 10.5   5.2 14.3   4.9

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 06-24-17 at 11:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-24-17 84   61 58   51 83   64 56   51 79   73 56   53 78   82 54   61
06-23-17 90 57.3 63 60 43.8 51 84   62 58   52 84   68 55   49 81   74 56   54
06-22-17 101 62.1 76 63 53.5 53 91 57.3 67 61 43.8 53 87   70 59   53 85   70 58   49
06-19-17 96 71.5 71 62 49.2 54 89 62.1 75 59 53.5 53 95 57.3 77 61 43.8 58 99   76 60   53
06-18-17 99 66.3 66 63 53.0 54 92 71.5 73 60 49.2 56 91 62.1 74 58 53.5 56 93 57.3 68 60 43.8 56
06-17-17 93 58.7 73 62 53.6 54 96 66.3 66 62 53.0 50 91 71.5 73 61 49.2 54 91 62.1 73 59 53.5 53
06-16-17 89 67.9 80 60 56.4 59 93 58.7 74 63 53.6 55 97 66.3 65 62 53.0 47 92 71.5 70 61 49.2 52
06-15-17 83 75.2 77 57 53.8 57 89 67.9 81 60 56.4 61 94 58.7 80 63 53.6 60 95 66.3 64 61 53.0 49
06-14-17 82 70.4 85 53 53.6 60 83 75.2 76 56 53.8 57 90 67.9 79 60 56.4 59 94 58.7 81 62 53.6 61
06-12-17 67 77.9 80 50 60.4 55 77 70.4 77 51 53.6 63 81 75.2 85 53 53.8 61 84 67.9 76 56 56.4 56
06-11-17 66 73.6 81 51 47.5 55 69 77.9 81 50 60.4 54 78 70.4 77 52 53.6 65 81 75.2 79 54 53.8 62
06-10-17 69 71.2 82 49 52.8 59 66 73.6 85 50 47.5 59 69 77.9 83 50 60.4 53 78 70.4 79 52 53.6 64
06-09-17 72 79.1 87 50 64.6 64 70 71.2 83 50 52.8 56 65 73.6 87 49 47.5 56 72 77.9 84 50 60.4 56
06-08-17 73 77.3 81 55 48.7 54 73 79.1 85 50 64.6 62 71 71.2 85 50 52.8 57 71 73.6 84 49 47.5 56
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 1 4 1 3 0 2 1 2 3 0 0 1 4 2
% Succ     23.1 7.7   30.8 8.3   25.0     16.7 9.1   18.2 27.3   0.0     10.0 40.0   20.0
Ave Error 18.1   7.3 7.9   3.9 17.0   7.7 7.6   5.2 18.7   10.5 6.6   6.8 18.7   8.5 6.4   5.9
Net Error 13.2   7.2 3.4   2.9 13.1   7.7 2.5   3.1 15.4   10.3 3.8   4.4 17.0   7.7 3.9   4.0
Std Dev 13.0   5.5 5.1   2.8 12.2   5.9 5.2   3.8 14.3   8.1 5.7   4.8 14.8   7.6 5.8   5.0

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 06-23-17 at 6:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-23-17 60   49 84   65 58   52 84   66 55   46 81   72 56   49 80   84
06-22-17 98 53.5 52 62 64.5 66 90   52 60   68 84   54 58   72 85   52 57   75
06-21-17 95 49.2 57 65 76.2 79 101 53.5 53 61 64.5 66 92   49 59   65 88   50 59   70
06-20-17 90 46.5 49 61 75.9 78 95 49.2 56 65 76.2 78 101 53.5 54 61 64.5 68 92   52 59   69
06-19-17 95 50.2 51 62 72.4 74 89 46.5 51 59 75.9 78 95 49.2 56 63 76.2 77 100 53.5 52 61 64.5 73
06-18-17 98 53.0 54 63 70.1 72 92 50.2 56 60 72.4 71 90 46.5 52 57 75.9 74 93 49.2 55 60 76.2 72
06-17-17 93 53.6 54 62 65.6 66 96 53.0 52 62 70.1 73 92 50.2 55 61 72.4 74 91 46.5 55 59 75.9 72
06-16-17 59 56.4 56 94 70.0 76 62 53.6 54 97 65.6 66 62 53.0 48 92 70.1 72 61 50.2 54 92 72.4 73
06-15-17 57 53.8 56 90 78.1 81 60 56.4 59 93 70.0 75 63 53.6 56 98 65.6 66 62 53.0 51 93 70.1 69
06-14-17 53 53.6 56 84 74.1 75 57 53.8 58 90 78.1 80 61 56.4 60 96 70.0 82 63 53.6 61 96 65.6 63
06-13-17 51 60.4 62 80 80.3 83 52 53.6 62 83 74.1 79 57 53.8 57 90 78.1 83 61 56.4 59 93 70.0 79
06-12-17 50 51.9 55 77 69.2 74 52 60.4 65 81 80.3 84 53 53.6 60 85 74.1 77 59 53.8 57 91 78.1 77
06-11-17 51 47.5 55 69 75.5 82 50 51.9 54 78 69.2 72 52 60.4 63 81 80.3 81 54 53.6 62 86 74.1 75
06-10-17 49 52.8 53 66 78.9 78 50 47.5 62 69 75.5 81 51 51.9 54 78 69.2 76 52 60.4 61 81 80.3 82
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 7 1 6 2 3 1 5 2 1 1 6 1 3 1 5
% Succ 15.4   53.8 7.7   46.2 16.7   25.0 8.3   41.7 18.2   9.1 9.1   54.5 10.0   30.0 10.0   50.0
Ave Error 22.2   2.4 9.5   2.7 20.9   4.6 11.9   2.8 19.5   3.9 14.5   3.4 18.3   4.4 15.8   3.4
Net Error 19.7   2.1 -1.2   2.6 18.9   4.4 2.2   2.6 17.7   3.0 6.0   3.1 16.6   3.7 8.5   0.8
Std Dev 20.5   2.4 6.4   1.9 20.2   3.1 9.3   1.8 20.0   2.6 10.9   3.5 19.2   3.5 12.0   2.9

Night Forecasts
Updated: 06-24-17 at 10:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-24-17 60   48 84   65 58   54 84   61 55   42 81   69 56   47 80   83
06-23-17 62 49.2 52 90 64.5 67 60   52 84   69 58   52 85   71 57   52 82   76
06-22-17 65 54.5 59 101 76.2 81 61 49.2 57 92 64.5 70 59   55 88   72 59   57 85   72
06-21-17 61 59.7 48 95 75.9 80 65 54.5 58 101 76.2 78 61 49.2 56 92 64.5 64 59   52 88   67
06-20-17 62 49.9 52 89 72.4 73 59 59.7 49 95 75.9 77 63 54.5 54 100 76.2 76 61 49.2 56 90 64.5 72
06-19-17 63 50.5 53 92 70.1 72 60 49.9 56 90 72.4 73 57 59.7 53 93 75.9 74 60 54.5 56 96 76.2 71
06-18-17 62 55.1 54 96 65.6 67 62 50.5 57 92 70.1 75 61 49.9 56 91 72.4 75 59 59.7 58 92 75.9 73
06-17-17 59 56.1 57 94 70.0 75 62 55.1 60 97 65.6 71 62 50.5 53 92 70.1 71 61 49.9 53 92 72.4 71
06-16-17 57 58.1 54 90 78.1 80 60 56.1 60 93 70.0 70 63 55.1 54 98 65.6 65 62 50.5 49 93 70.1 70
06-15-17 53 55.9 57 84 74.1 76 57 58.1 57 90 78.1 79 61 56.1 59 96 70.0 77 63 55.1 62 96 65.6 66
06-14-17 51 65.0 61 80 80.3 86 52 55.9 58 83 74.1 80 57 58.1 57 90 78.1 82 61 56.1 60 93 70.0 81
06-13-17 50 61.2 53 77 69.2 75 52 65.0 62 81 80.3 86 53 55.9 59 85 74.1 79 59 58.1 56 91 78.1 81
06-12-17 51 54.7 56 70 75.5 82 50 61.2 56 77 69.2 78 52 65.0 64 81 80.3 86 54 55.9 60 86 74.1 74
06-11-17 49 58.1 51 66 78.9 79 50 54.7 59 69 75.5 81 51 61.2 54 78 69.2 76 52 65.0 61 81 80.3 82
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 1 6 2 1 1 5 1 4 1 5 3 3 1 5
% Succ 15.4   30.8 7.7   46.2 16.7   8.3 8.3   41.7 9.1   36.4 9.1   45.5 30.0   30.0 10.0   50.0
Ave Error 7.8   4.0 16.2   3.2 7.4   4.9 16.8   3.8 7.8   3.5 18.1   3.2 6.9   3.6 18.3   3.3
Net Error 1.3   -1.6 13.3   3.2 1.7   1.6 15.7   3.8 2.3   0.3 18.1   2.6 3.8   1.7 18.3   1.4
Std Dev 5.1   3.2 9.7   2.1 5.0   3.2 10.7   2.7 5.2   2.8 11.4   2.6 5.4   2.9 12.5   3.0

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

RAIN FALL
Rain fall - Bemidji's maximum rain fall was 41.03 inches recorded in 1901.