WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 08-18-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-18 85   39 63   19 74   37 55   22 73   41 51   17 74   51 52   22
08-17-18 84 29.9 39 58 22.2 19 85   37 63   22 75   41 56   17 74   51 52   22
08-16-18 83 29.9 39 53 22.2 19 83 29.9 37 60 22.2 22 85   41 62   17 72   51 54   22
08-15-18 45 29.9 39 78 22.2 19 55 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 58 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 63   51 85   22
08-14-18 70 29.9 39 48 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 82 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 84 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
08-13-18 88 29.9 39 55 22.2 19 68 29.9 37 48 22.2 22 75 29.9 41 55 22.2 17 81 29.9 51 60 22.2 22
08-12-18 86 29.9 39 67 22.2 19 86 29.9 37 56 22.2 22 70 29.9 41 50 22.2 17 74 29.9 51 54 22.2 22
08-11-18 87 29.9 39 63 22.2 19 90 29.9 37 67 22.2 22 87 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 73 29.9 51 52 22.2 22
08-10-18 86 29.9 39 62 22.2 19 88 29.9 37 64 22.2 22 87 29.9 41 66 22.2 17 85 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
08-09-18 81 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 85 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 87 29.9 41 64 22.2 17 86 29.9 51 66 22.2 22
08-08-18 85 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 81 29.9 37 60 22.2 22 85 29.9 41 63 22.2 17 87 29.9 51 64 22.2 22
08-07-18 80 29.9 39 63 22.2 19 85 29.9 37 61 22.2 22 82 29.9 41 60 22.2 17 85 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
08-06-18 73 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 80 29.9 37 63 22.2 22 84 29.9 41 58 22.2 17 81 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
08-05-18 81 29.9 39 55 22.2 19 72 29.9 37 51 22.2 22 80 29.9 41 61 22.2 17 85 29.9 51 60 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 49.3   9.1 37.3   3.2 49.2   7.1 38.7   0.2 49.8   11.1 39.6   5.2 52.2   21.1 37.6   0.2
Net Error 49.3   9.1 37.3   -3.2 49.2   7.1 38.7   -0.2 49.8   11.1 39.6   -5.2 52.2   21.1 37.6   -0.2
Std Dev 17.6   2.5 12.6   0.9 22.1   2.9 17.9   0.1 27.4   5.8 22.3   2.7 33.3   13.3 24.1   0.1

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 08-18-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-18 85   39 63   19 74   37 55   22 73   41 51   17 74   51 52   22
08-17-18 82 29.9 39 58 22.2 19 85   37 63   22 75   41 56   17 74   51 52   22
08-16-18 83 29.9 39 53 22.2 19 83 29.9 37 60 22.2 22 85   41 62   17 72   51 54   22
08-15-18 78 29.9 39 55 22.2 19 85 29.9 37 58 22.2 22 85 29.9 41 63 22.2 17 85   51 63   22
08-14-18 73 29.9 39 48 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 82 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 84 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
08-13-18 88 29.9 39 55 22.2 19 68 29.9 37 48 22.2 22 75 29.9 41 55 22.2 17 81 29.9 51 60 22.2 22
08-12-18 86 29.9 39 67 22.2 19 86 29.9 37 56 22.2 22 70 29.9 41 50 22.2 17 74 29.9 51 54 22.2 22
08-11-18 87 29.9 39 63 22.2 19 90 29.9 37 67 22.2 22 87 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 73 29.9 51 52 22.2 22
08-10-18 86 29.9 39 62 22.2 19 88 29.9 37 64 22.2 22 87 29.9 41 66 22.2 17 85 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
08-09-18 81 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 85 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 87 29.9 41 64 22.2 17 86 29.9 51 66 22.2 22
08-08-18 85 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 81 29.9 37 60 22.2 22 85 29.9 41 63 22.2 17 87 29.9 51 64 22.2 22
08-07-18 80 29.9 39 63 22.2 19 85 29.9 37 61 22.2 22 82 29.9 41 60 22.2 17 85 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
08-06-18 73 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 80 29.9 37 63 22.2 22 84 29.9 41 58 22.2 17 81 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
08-05-18 81 29.9 39 55 22.2 19 72 29.9 37 51 22.2 22 80 29.9 41 61 22.2 17 85 29.9 51 60 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 51.9   9.1 35.6   3.2 51.7   7.1 36.5   0.2 52.3   11.1 37.6   5.2 52.2   21.1 37.6   0.2
Net Error 51.9   9.1 35.6   -3.2 51.7   7.1 36.5   -0.2 52.3   11.1 37.6   -5.2 52.2   21.1 37.6   -0.2
Std Dev 15.1   2.5 11.0   0.9 21.8   2.9 15.6   0.1 27.8   5.8 20.1   2.7 33.3   13.3 24.1   0.1

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 08-18-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-18-18 63   39 74   19 55   37 73   22 50   41 73   17 50   51 78   22
08-17-18 58 29.9 39 85 22.2 19 63   37 75   22 55   41 73   17 51   51 74   22
08-16-18 54 29.9 39 83 22.2 19 59 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 63   41 74   17 55   51 72   22
08-15-18 52 29.9 39 84 22.2 19 58 29.9 37 84 22.2 22 61 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 62   51 74   22
08-14-18 48 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 82 22.2 22 59 29.9 41 84 22.2 17 62 29.9 51 83 22.2 22
08-13-18 55 29.9 39 68 22.2 19 48 29.9 37 76 22.2 22 55 29.9 41 82 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 85 22.2 22
08-12-18 68 29.9 39 86 22.2 19 56 29.9 37 70 22.2 22 50 29.9 41 74 22.2 17 54 29.9 51 81 22.2 22
08-11-18 61 29.9 39 90 22.2 19 68 29.9 37 87 22.2 22 57 29.9 41 72 22.2 17 52 29.9 51 74 22.2 22
08-10-18 61 29.9 39 90 22.2 19 65 29.9 37 88 22.2 22 67 29.9 41 87 22.2 17 61 29.9 51 73 22.2 22
08-09-18 59 29.9 39 87 22.2 19 63 29.9 37 88 22.2 22 65 29.9 41 87 22.2 17 67 29.9 51 85 22.2 22
08-08-18 59 29.9 39 81 22.2 19 59 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 87 22.2 17 64 29.9 51 85 22.2 22
08-07-18 63 29.9 39 85 22.2 19 60 29.9 37 82 22.2 22 60 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 63 29.9 51 87 22.2 22
08-06-18 54 29.9 39 80 22.2 19 63 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 59 29.9 41 82 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 84 22.2 22
08-05-18 55 29.9 39 73 22.2 19 52 29.9 37 79 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 82 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 27.6   9.1 60.0   3.2 28.9   7.1 60.4   0.2 29.8   11.1 60.5   5.2 30.1   21.1 59.7   0.2
Net Error 27.6   9.1 60.0   -3.2 28.9   7.1 60.4   -0.2 29.8   11.1 60.5   -5.2 30.1   21.1 59.7   -0.2
Std Dev 9.1   2.5 17.6   0.9 12.8   2.9 25.1   0.1 16.2   5.8 32.0   2.7 19.4   13.3 38.0   0.1

Night Forecasts
Updated: 08-19-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-19-18 63   39 74   19 55   37 73   22 50   41 73   17 50   51 78   22
08-18-18 58 29.9 39 85 22.2 19 63   37 75   22 55   41 73   17 51   51 74   22
08-17-18 57 29.9 39 83 22.2 19 59 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 63   41 74   17 55   51 72   22
08-16-18 52 29.9 39 84 22.2 19 58 29.9 37 84 22.2 22 61 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 62   51 74   22
08-15-18 48 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 82 22.2 22 59 29.9 41 84 22.2 17 62 29.9 51 83 22.2 22
08-14-18 55 29.9 39 68 22.2 19 48 29.9 37 76 22.2 22 55 29.9 41 82 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 85 22.2 22
08-13-18 68 29.9 39 87 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 69 22.2 22 49 29.9 41 76 22.2 17 55 29.9 51 83 22.2 22
08-12-18 61 29.9 39 90 22.2 19 68 29.9 37 87 22.2 22 57 29.9 41 72 22.2 17 52 29.9 51 74 22.2 22
08-11-18 61 29.9 39 90 22.2 19 65 29.9 37 88 22.2 22 67 29.9 41 87 22.2 17 61 29.9 51 73 22.2 22
08-10-18 59 29.9 39 87 22.2 19 63 29.9 37 88 22.2 22 65 29.9 41 87 22.2 17 67 29.9 51 85 22.2 22
08-09-18 59 29.9 39 81 22.2 19 59 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 87 22.2 17 64 29.9 51 85 22.2 22
08-08-18 63 29.9 39 85 22.2 19 60 29.9 37 82 22.2 22 60 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 63 29.9 51 87 22.2 22
08-07-18 54 29.9 39 80 22.2 19 63 29.9 37 85 22.2 22 59 29.9 41 82 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 84 22.2 22
08-06-18 55 29.9 39 73 22.2 19 52 29.9 37 79 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 85 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 82 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 27.8   9.1 60.0   3.2 28.7   7.1 60.3   0.2 29.7   11.1 60.7   5.2 30.2   21.1 59.9   0.2
Net Error 27.8   9.1 60.0   -3.2 28.7   7.1 60.3   -0.2 29.7   11.1 60.7   -5.2 30.2   21.1 59.9   -0.2
Std Dev 9.1   2.5 17.6   0.9 12.8   2.9 25.2   0.1 16.2   5.8 32.0   2.7 19.5   13.3 38.1   0.1

Minnesota Random Weather Facts