WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 08-16-17 at 6:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-17 79   72 59   64 82   71 61   55 83   81 61   58 83   82 59   62
08-15-17 75 79.9 75 58 61.7 63 79   68 60   63 82   77 62   55 83   75 61   60
08-12-17 82 58.9 79 58 51.7 56 83 79.9 80 60 61.7 61 79   79 59   65 82   77 59   68
08-11-17 82 77.7 77 59 48.0 53 80 58.9 81 58 51.7 56 82 79.9 81 61 61.7 59 82   80 60   61
08-10-17 82 75.4 75 59 47.5 55 84 77.7 79 60 48.0 58 84 58.9 81 59 51.7 59 85 79.9 81 63 61.7 62
08-09-17 83 75.6 78 60 58.6 67 84 75.4 79 60 47.5 59 85 77.7 81 60 48.0 62 86 58.9 82 60 51.7 62
08-08-17 84 82.0 82 59 55.8 59 86 75.6 80 60 58.6 65 85 75.4 73 60 47.5 58 86 77.7 80 61 48.0 62
08-07-17 83 79.9 79 59 44.1 54 86 82.0 84 60 55.8 57 87 75.6 82 61 58.6 62 87 75.4 75 61 47.5 56
08-06-17 85 78.3 75 59 44.1 51 84 79.9 81 59 44.1 57 87 82.0 84 61 55.8 58 89 75.6 82 62 58.6 58
08-05-17 89 75.7 77 61 46.6 50 86 78.3 79 60 44.1 54 86 79.9 82 59 44.1 57 87 82.0 85 61 55.8 61
08-04-17 70 77.5 76 92 45.4 51 63 75.7 80 89 46.6 55 61 78.3 80 87 44.1 54 58 79.9 83 86 44.1 60
08-03-17 63 68.5 70 92 48.8 56 63 77.5 79 90 45.4 57 61 75.7 81 88 46.6 59 59 78.3 83 86 44.1 59
08-02-17 93 73.0 77 64 54.0 60 93 68.5 75 63 48.8 59 91 77.5 78 60 45.4 56 87 75.7 81 58 46.6 62
07-30-17 89 80.2 90 58 53.9 64 92 73.0 92 59 54.0 66 97 68.5 86 60 48.8 60 93 77.5 85 59 45.4 66
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 7 1 1 0 6 2 2 0 4 1 0 0 2 1 2
% Succ 7.7   53.8 7.7   7.7     50.0 16.7   16.7     36.4 9.1   0.0     20.0 10.0   20.0
Ave Error 8.7   3.9 14.2   6.1 11.3   5.6 14.6   8.3 12.8   5.9 15.0   8.8 13.9   5.7 15.4   10.6
Net Error 6.0   2.1 13.7   6.1 6.8   5.6 14.3   8.1 7.0   5.4 14.9   8.3 5.6   5.6 15.4   10.5
Std Dev 6.6   5.2 14.1   2.8 7.0   6.2 14.8   5.1 9.2   6.4 13.4   6.0 10.6   7.1 12.0   8.3

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 08-16-17 at 11:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-17 79   69 59   63 82   70 61   55 83   80 61   57 83   81 59   62
08-15-17 75 64.8 78 58 61.7 64 79   69 60   63 82   77 62   56 83   76 61   60
08-12-17 82 77.0 81 58 51.7 55 83 64.8 81 60 61.7 62 79   79 59   63 82   78 59   68
08-11-17 82 75.8 79 59 48.0 55 80 77.0 81 58 51.7 56 82 64.8 81 61 61.7 59 82   80 60   61
08-10-17 82 74.6 74 59 47.5 55 84 75.8 79 60 48.0 56 84 77.0 81 59 51.7 56 85 64.8 82 63 61.7 61
08-09-17 83 69.5 75 60 58.6 62 84 74.6 76 60 47.5 57 85 75.8 78 60 48.0 59 86 77.0 81 60 51.7 61
08-08-17 84 71.3 80 59 55.8 60 86 69.5 82 60 58.6 64 85 74.6 73 60 47.5 57 86 75.8 80 61 48.0 61
08-07-17 83 79.8 80 59 44.1 53 86 71.3 85 60 55.8 59 87 69.5 86 61 58.6 63 87 74.6 75 61 47.5 64
08-06-17 85 75.8 78 59 44.1 53 84 79.8 83 59 44.1 59 87 71.3 85 61 55.8 58 89 69.5 82 62 58.6 57
08-05-17 89 73.1 80 61 46.6 58 86 75.8 82 60 44.1 55 86 79.8 82 59 44.1 58 87 71.3 85 61 55.8 62
08-04-17 92 72.7 78 63 45.4 55 89 73.1 81 61 46.6 56 87 75.8 80 58 44.1 56 86 79.8 83 58 44.1 58
08-03-17 92 72.1 69 63 48.8 54 90 72.7 80 61 45.4 55 88 73.1 80 59 46.6 57 86 75.8 81 58 44.1 58
08-02-17 93 60.6 75 64 54.0 60 93 72.1 75 63 48.8 55 91 72.7 79 60 45.4 57 87 73.1 84 58 46.6 64
07-31-17 90 71.0 90 59 53.9 65 97 60.6 86 62 54.0 59 95 72.1 82 61 48.8 63 93 72.7 77 59 45.4 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 2
% Succ     15.4 7.7   0.0     8.3 16.7   8.3     9.1 9.1   0.0     10.0 10.0   20.0
Ave Error 13.4   6.6 9.9   6.8 14.6   8.7 10.1   7.2 13.7   7.6 9.8   8.7 13.8   7.6 9.8   10.4
Net Error 13.4   6.1 9.3   6.8 14.6   8.7 9.8   7.2 13.7   7.3 9.7   8.2 13.8   7.6 9.8   10.0
Std Dev 8.4   4.7 5.7   3.3 8.1   5.7 6.5   4.7 8.1   6.6 6.8   5.9 9.3   6.8 7.3   8.2

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 08-15-17 at 6:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-15-17 57   64 80   70 59   64 82   76 61   56 84   80 61   58 84   82
08-12-17 58 51.7 56 82 79.9 78 61   62 76   80 58   62 81   83 60   68 84   74
08-11-17 59 48.0 53 82 78.2 81 58 51.7 58 83 79.9 80 61   60 80   81 60   65 82   77
08-10-17 59 47.5 53 84 77.7 80 60 48.0 54 84 78.2 81 59 51.7 57 85 79.9 81 63   60 83   81
08-09-17 60 58.6 60 84 75.4 75 60 47.5 55 85 77.7 80 60 48.0 57 86 78.2 82 60 51.7 61 84 79.9 79
08-08-17 59 55.8 60 83 75.6 78 60 58.6 64 83 75.4 75 60 47.5 58 85 77.7 81 61 48.0 62 86 78.2 81
08-05-17 62 44.1 52 85 82.0 81 59 55.8 56 85 75.6 82 60 58.6 55 87 75.4 84 62 47.5 59 88 77.7 83
08-04-17 65 45.4 53 90 75.7 80 62 44.1 53 87 82.0 81 59 55.8 55 86 75.6 83 59 58.6 57 86 75.4 85
08-02-17 90 48.8 55 63 77.5 68 92 45.4 56 63 75.7 80 91 44.1 58 61 82.0 81 88 55.8 61 59 75.6 78
08-01-17 63 53.9 59 93 73.0 79 64 48.8 60 93 77.5 67 63 45.4 55 91 75.7 76 59 44.1 58 87 82.0 78
07-29-17 58 59.5 64 92 80.2 91 58 53.9 68 93 73.0 89 59 48.8 67 94 77.5 83 59 45.4 60 90 75.7 81
07-28-17 58 59.2 60 88 86.3 90 58 59.5 67 89 80.2 91 59 53.9 69 93 73.0 93 59 48.8 70 92 77.5 87
07-23-17 58 53.4 54 80 83.4 85 57 59.2 64 82 86.3 87 58 59.5 67 86 80.2 83 58 53.9 63 88 73.0 85
07-21-17 57 61.3 61 91 74.8 84 59 53.4 60 88 83.4 82 59 59.2 60 82 86.3 85 59 59.5 68 82 80.2 81
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 4 1 4 2 1 0 5 3 2 0 4 2 1 1 2
% Succ 23.1   30.8 7.7   30.8 16.7   8.3     41.7 27.3   18.2     36.4 20.0   10.0 10.0   20.0
Ave Error 10.2   4.1 8.7   4.3 10.7   7.4 8.7   4.7 10.7   8.6 11.4   5.0 11.2   10.9 10.0   5.3
Net Error 9.1   4.1 5.9   2.3 10.1   7.4 5.8   2.5 10.4   7.8 6.8   4.6 11.1   10.6 6.7   4.3
Std Dev 10.9   2.5 6.0   3.3 12.5   4.5 5.8   5.1 13.0   6.3 7.3   3.7 10.5   7.8 7.1   4.1

Night Forecasts
Updated: 08-16-17 at 10:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
08-16-17 57   64 80   69 59   62 82   77 61   57 84   81 61   57 84   82
08-15-17 58 64.2 53 76 79.9 78 58   65 79   69 60   66 82   78 62   60 83   75
08-13-17 58 55.6 58 82 58.9 78 61 64.2 62 76 79.9 80 58   62 81   83 60   67 84   72
08-12-17 59 58.5 51 82 78.2 79 58 55.6 57 83 58.9 81 61 64.2 60 80 79.9 81 60   65 82   77
08-11-17 59 55.0 50 84 77.7 78 60 58.5 53 84 78.2 81 58 55.6 58 83 58.9 81 62 64.2 60 83 79.9 81
08-10-17 60 53.5 59 84 75.4 74 60 55.0 55 85 77.7 79 60 58.5 58 86 78.2 81 60 55.6 62 84 58.9 79
08-09-17 59 59.4 58 83 75.6 78 60 53.5 65 83 75.4 76 60 55.0 58 85 77.7 81 61 58.5 62 86 78.2 81
08-07-17 58 57.7 49 84 82.0 80 59 59.4 54 86 75.6 85 60 53.5 61 87 75.4 76 61 55.0 65 88 77.7 79
08-06-17 62 50.3 53 85 78.3 80 59 57.7 55 85 82.0 82 60 59.4 55 87 75.6 84 62 53.5 59 88 75.4 83
08-05-17 65 53.8 52 90 75.7 79 62 50.3 53 87 78.3 81 59 57.7 55 86 82.0 83 59 59.4 57 86 75.6 85
08-04-17 66 54.2 50 90 77.5 77 62 53.8 53 88 75.7 81 60 50.3 57 86 78.3 81 58 57.7 57 86 82.0 83
08-03-17 63 53.7 55 92 68.5 70 63 54.2 57 91 77.5 81 61 53.8 58 88 75.7 81 59 50.3 61 86 78.3 78
08-02-17 63 55.9 55 93 73.0 80 64 53.7 61 93 68.5 68 63 54.2 60 91 77.5 76 59 53.8 59 87 75.7 79
07-30-17 58 56.3 64 92 80.2 92 58 55.9 68 93 73.0 91 59 53.7 68 94 68.5 83 59 54.2 60 90 77.5 81
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 1 8 3 3 0 5 3 1 1 4 2 1 0 4
% Succ 30.8   30.8 7.7   61.5 25.0   25.0     41.7 27.3   9.1 9.1   36.4 20.0   10.0     40.0
Ave Error 5.6   4.6 11.1   4.1 5.1   4.5 11.8   5.5 4.7   5.1 11.4   5.8 4.3   5.4 10.5   5.0
Net Error 4.6   -1.6 10.5   3.2 4.5   1.8 11.1   5.4 4.1   2.9 11.4   5.5 3.8   4.0 10.5   5.0
Std Dev 4.4   3.3 7.7   5.0 3.9   3.5 7.4   6.3 3.6   3.4 8.4   6.5 3.4   3.9 8.5   6.2

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

SNOW FALL
Snow Fall - Bemidji's 24 hour maximum was 18.0 inches recorded in April 5-6, 2008.