WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 10-19-17 at 2:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-17 68   30 50   53 66   29 46   60 72   32 48   72 78   41 50   68
10-18-17 76 36.6 30 49 39.3 53 70   29 50   60 67   32 46   72 72   41 49   68
10-17-17 80 36.6 30 50 39.3 53 75 36.6 29 49 39.3 60 70   32 51   72 68   41 46   68
10-16-17 86 36.6 30 53 39.3 53 80 36.6 29 50 39.3 60 76 36.6 32 50 39.3 72 71   41 51   68
10-15-17 87 36.6 30 52 39.3 53 86 36.6 29 52 39.3 60 79 36.6 32 50 39.3 72 75 36.6 41 51 39.3 68
10-14-17 78 36.6 55 50 48.7 35 85 36.6 51 52 39.3 29 84 36.6 62 51 39.3 31 77 36.6 71 49 39.3 36
10-13-17 75 55.5 58 48 27.4 29 78 36.6 51 48 48.7 33 84 36.6 51 51 39.3 30 83 36.6 60 50 39.3 33
10-12-17 72 66.7 71 45 34.9 46 74 55.5 60 47 27.4 39 77 36.6 51 47 48.7 38 81 36.6 51 48 39.3 31
10-11-17 72 60.3 30 47 46.6 61 72 66.7 37 44 34.9 65 73 55.5 36 46 27.4 54 76 36.6 31 46 48.7 57
10-10-17 79 25.5 24 48 45.0 57 72 60.3 30 45 46.6 60 71 66.7 41 44 34.9 68 72 55.5 36 46 27.4 56
10-09-17 80 33.1 32 51 61.4 62 78 25.5 41 49 45.0 65 72 60.3 44 45 46.6 63 71 66.7 44 43 34.9 57
10-08-17 80 38.8 32 53 61.4 62 80 33.1 41 53 61.4 65 78 25.5 44 47 45.0 63 72 60.3 44 44 46.6 57
10-07-17 84 38.8 32 51 61.4 62 83 38.8 41 52 61.4 65 83 33.1 44 52 61.4 63 81 25.5 44 48 45.0 57
10-06-17 86 38.8 32 55 61.4 62 84 38.8 41 51 61.4 65 83 38.8 44 53 61.4 63 84 33.1 44 52 61.4 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 2 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0
% Succ     15.4 15.4   38.5     0.0 16.7   0.0     0.0 27.3   18.2     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 38.0   8.1 9.1   8.5 37.1   12.0 9.1   14.5 36.1   14.5 8.7   17.4 34.8   17.0 8.5   13.2
Net Error 38.0   -4.2 3.6   6.4 37.1   -1.8 4.0   10.2 36.1   1.6 4.9   12.2 34.8   4.2 5.6   8.8
Std Dev 18.1   7.9 5.8   6.2 21.3   9.5 6.2   8.9 23.7   10.0 6.4   13.1 23.4   13.4 6.6   11.7

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 10-19-17 at 2:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-17 68   30 50   53 66   29 46   60 72   32 48   72 78   41 50   68
10-18-17 76 36.6 30 49 39.3 53 70   29 50   60 67   32 46   72 72   41 49   68
10-17-17 80 36.6 30 50 39.3 53 75 36.6 29 49 39.3 60 70   32 51   72 68   41 46   68
10-16-17 86 36.6 30 53 39.3 53 80 36.6 29 50 39.3 60 76 36.6 32 50 39.3 72 71   41 51   68
10-15-17 87 36.6 30 52 39.3 53 86 36.6 29 52 39.3 60 79 36.6 32 50 39.3 72 75 36.6 41 51 39.3 68
10-14-17 78 36.6 52 50 39.3 31 85 36.6 51 52 39.3 28 84 36.6 62 51 39.3 30 77 36.6 70 49 39.3 37
10-13-17 75 48.7 54 48 27.4 25 78 36.6 52 48 39.3 32 84 36.6 52 51 39.3 31 83 36.6 63 50 39.3 33
10-12-17 72 51.8 66 45 34.9 42 74 48.7 58 47 27.4 32 77 36.6 49 47 39.3 38 81 36.6 51 48 39.3 31
10-11-17 72 62.8 30 47 46.6 61 72 51.8 37 44 34.9 65 73 48.7 36 46 27.4 54 76 36.6 31 46 39.3 57
10-10-17 79 25.5 24 48 60.3 57 72 62.8 30 45 46.6 60 71 51.8 41 44 34.9 68 72 48.7 36 46 27.4 56
10-09-17 80 33.1 32 51 45.0 62 78 25.5 41 49 60.3 65 72 62.8 44 45 46.6 63 71 51.8 44 43 34.9 57
10-08-17 80 38.8 32 53 61.4 62 80 33.1 41 53 45.0 65 78 25.5 44 47 60.3 63 72 62.8 44 44 46.6 57
10-07-17 84 38.8 32 51 61.4 62 83 38.8 41 52 61.4 65 83 33.1 44 52 45.0 63 81 25.5 44 48 60.3 57
10-06-17 86 38.8 32 55 61.4 62 84 38.8 41 51 61.4 65 83 38.8 44 53 61.4 63 84 33.1 44 52 45.0 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
% Succ     15.4 7.7   23.1     0.0 8.3   0.0     0.0 9.1   18.2     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 39.5   9.0 10.2   8.4 38.7   11.4 10.3   13.4 37.8   12.7 10.0   16.6 36.7   15.3 9.6   14.0
Net Error 39.5   -3.6 4.4   6.2 38.7   -0.3 4.9   10.3 37.8   3.3 5.8   13.2 36.7   6.3 6.6   9.9
Std Dev 16.5   8.2 5.2   6.1 20.2   8.3 5.8   9.3 23.1   8.6 6.5   13.7 24.0   12.7 6.8   12.1

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 10-19-17 at 2:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-19-17 65   30 50   53 66   29 46   60 72   32 48   72 78   41 50   68
10-18-17 49 36.6 30 70 39.3 53 50   29 67   60 47   32 72   72 50   41 78   68
10-17-17 51 36.6 30 76 39.3 53 50 36.6 29 70 39.3 60 51   32 68   72 47   41 73   68
10-16-17 54 36.6 30 80 39.3 53 50 36.6 29 76 39.3 60 50 36.6 32 70 39.3 72 51   41 68   68
10-15-17 53 36.6 30 86 39.3 53 53 36.6 29 80 39.3 60 50 36.6 32 76 39.3 72 51 36.6 41 70 39.3 68
10-14-17 51 36.6 31 85 39.3 51 54 36.6 27 84 39.3 59 52 36.6 31 77 39.3 72 50 36.6 40 74 39.3 73
10-13-17 48 27.4 25 78 48.7 50 48 36.6 32 84 39.3 52 51 36.6 30 83 39.3 62 50 36.6 30 76 39.3 65
10-12-17 43 34.9 41 74 55.5 57 48 27.4 32 77 48.7 49 47 36.6 39 84 39.3 51 50 36.6 31 83 39.3 64
10-11-17 47 46.6 37 72 66.7 66 44 34.9 40 73 55.5 56 46 27.4 35 76 48.7 53 46 36.6 40 80 39.3 49
10-10-17 48 25.5 24 72 60.3 57 48 46.6 30 72 66.7 60 45 34.9 41 73 55.5 68 47 27.4 36 76 48.7 56
10-09-17 54 33.1 32 79 45.0 62 49 25.5 41 72 60.3 65 45 46.6 44 71 66.7 63 46 34.9 44 72 55.5 57
10-08-17 52 38.8 32 80 61.4 62 52 33.1 41 78 45.0 65 47 25.5 44 72 60.3 63 44 46.6 44 72 66.7 57
10-07-17 51 38.8 32 83 61.4 62 52 38.8 41 83 61.4 65 52 33.1 44 80 45.0 63 48 25.5 44 78 60.3 57
10-06-17 55 38.8 32 84 61.4 62 51 38.8 41 83 61.4 65 53 38.8 44 83 61.4 63 52 33.1 44 81 45.0 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 0 6 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ 7.7   15.4     46.2 8.3   0.0     16.7 9.1   0.0     9.1     0.0     10.0
Ave Error 14.5   5.6 27.9   7.1 14.2   7.6 28.0   11.2 13.8   6.8 28.3   15.9 13.9   7.3 28.9   15.6
Net Error 14.5   -4.7 27.9   6.5 14.2   -1.3 28.0   10.0 13.5   2.4 28.3   15.3 13.4   4.4 28.9   13.0
Std Dev 6.9   2.8 14.5   6.5 8.0   4.9 16.6   9.0 8.4   4.1 18.5   13.4 9.1   5.1 19.5   13.3

Night Forecasts
Updated: 10-20-17 at 2:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-17 50   30 66   53 46   29 72   60 48   32 78   72 50   41 84   68
10-19-17 49 36.6 30 70 39.3 53 50   29 67   60 47   32 72   72 50   41 78   68
10-18-17 51 36.6 30 76 39.3 53 50 36.6 29 70 39.3 60 51   32 68   72 47   41 73   68
10-17-17 54 36.6 30 80 39.3 53 50 36.6 29 76 39.3 60 50 36.6 32 70 39.3 72 51   41 68   68
10-16-17 53 36.6 30 86 39.3 53 53 36.6 29 80 39.3 60 50 36.6 32 76 39.3 72 51 36.6 41 70 39.3 68
10-15-17 51 36.6 34 85 39.3 52 54 36.6 28 84 39.3 60 52 36.6 31 77 39.3 72 50 36.6 40 74 39.3 73
10-14-17 48 38.6 24 78 48.7 48 48 36.6 31 84 39.3 52 51 36.6 30 83 39.3 62 50 36.6 31 76 39.3 66
10-13-17 43 32.2 36 74 55.5 55 48 38.6 28 77 48.7 50 47 36.6 34 84 39.3 50 50 36.6 30 83 39.3 64
10-12-17 47 49.5 43 72 66.7 67 44 32.2 40 73 55.5 56 46 38.6 35 76 48.7 51 46 36.6 39 80 39.3 49
10-11-17 48 49.6 35 72 60.3 64 48 49.5 46 72 66.7 69 45 32.2 44 73 55.5 59 47 38.6 32 76 48.7 52
10-10-17 54 25.5 24 79 45.0 57 49 49.6 30 72 60.3 60 45 49.5 41 71 66.7 68 46 32.2 36 72 55.5 56
10-09-17 52 33.1 32 80 61.4 62 52 25.5 41 78 45.0 65 47 49.6 44 72 60.3 63 44 49.5 44 72 66.7 57
10-08-17 51 38.8 32 83 61.4 62 52 33.1 41 83 61.4 65 52 25.5 44 80 45.0 63 48 49.6 44 78 60.3 57
10-07-17 55 38.8 32 84 61.4 62 51 38.8 41 83 61.4 65 53 33.1 44 83 61.4 63 52 25.5 44 81 45.0 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 2 0 6 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1
% Succ 7.7   15.4     46.2 16.7   0.0     25.0     0.0     18.2 10.0   0.0     10.0
Ave Error 13.5   6.5 27.9   6.7 12.7   8.7 28.0   10.6 12.8   7.5 28.3   14.6 12.0   6.2 28.9   15.2
Net Error 12.8   -5.9 27.9   6.5 12.4   -3.1 28.0   10.5 11.5   -0.0 28.3   14.6 10.6   0.3 28.9   12.6
Std Dev 7.6   4.4 14.5   6.2 8.4   5.5 16.6   9.5 7.4   4.8 18.5   14.0 7.8   4.3 19.5   13.6

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

CLOUD HEIGHT
The cloud height on this site is an estimate of cumulus clouds using a formula based on temperature and dew point. Actual measurements of cloud height are made with a Micropulse Lidar (MPL). This device fires a laser into the sky and measures the backscattered signal. Costs for such a device are beyond the scope of weather hobbyists.