WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 06-22-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-22-18 81   39 60   19 79   37 59   22 76   41 54   17 78   51 62   22
06-21-18 83 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 80   37 61   22 80   41 60   17 78   51 56   22
06-20-18 80 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 82 29.9 37 61 22.2 22 79   41 61   17 79   51 60   22
06-19-18 78 29.9 39 56 22.2 19 81 29.9 37 57 22.2 22 81 29.9 41 61 22.2 17 80   51 59   22
06-18-18 77 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 78 29.9 37 56 22.2 22 81 29.9 41 57 22.2 17 82 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
06-17-18 68 29.9 39 52 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 79 29.9 41 56 22.2 17 82 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
06-16-18 75 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 71 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 76 29.9 41 54 22.2 17 78 29.9 51 56 22.2 22
06-15-18 77 29.9 39 61 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 59 22.2 22 71 29.9 41 54 22.2 17 74 29.9 51 54 22.2 22
06-14-18 79 29.9 39 64 22.2 19 81 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 77 29.9 41 60 22.2 17 73 29.9 51 57 22.2 22
06-13-18 76 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 79 29.9 37 64 22.2 22 82 29.9 41 62 22.2 17 78 29.9 51 58 22.2 22
06-12-18 71 29.9 39 48 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 79 29.9 41 63 22.2 17 80 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
06-11-18 70 29.9 39 47 22.2 19 71 29.9 37 49 22.2 22 77 29.9 41 54 22.2 17 79 29.9 51 61 22.2 22
06-10-18 80 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 67 29.9 37 47 22.2 22 72 29.9 41 50 22.2 17 76 29.9 51 53 22.2 22
06-09-18 74 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 78 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 72 29.9 41 50 22.2 17 72 29.9 51 52 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 46.1   9.1 34.3   3.2 46.4   7.1 34.4   0.2 47.1   11.1 34.3   5.2 47.5   21.1 34.9   0.2
Net Error 46.1   9.1 34.3   -3.2 46.4   7.1 34.4   -0.2 47.1   11.1 34.3   -5.2 47.5   21.1 34.9   -0.2
Std Dev 13.4   2.5 10.7   0.9 19.3   2.9 14.6   0.1 24.8   5.8 18.2   2.7 30.2   13.3 22.1   0.1

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 06-21-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-21-18 81   39 59   19 80   37 61   22 80   41 60   17 78   51 56   22
06-20-18 81 29.9 39 59 22.2 19 82   37 61   22 79   41 61   17 79   51 60   22
06-19-18 78 29.9 39 56 22.2 19 81 29.9 37 57 22.2 22 81   41 61   17 80   51 59   22
06-18-18 77 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 78 29.9 37 56 22.2 22 81 29.9 41 57 22.2 17 82   51 59   22
06-17-18 68 29.9 39 52 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 79 29.9 41 56 22.2 17 82 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
06-16-18 75 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 71 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 76 29.9 41 54 22.2 17 78 29.9 51 56 22.2 22
06-15-18 77 29.9 39 61 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 59 22.2 22 71 29.9 41 54 22.2 17 74 29.9 51 54 22.2 22
06-14-18 79 29.9 39 64 22.2 19 81 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 77 29.9 41 60 22.2 17 73 29.9 51 57 22.2 22
06-13-18 76 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 79 29.9 37 64 22.2 22 82 29.9 41 62 22.2 17 78 29.9 51 58 22.2 22
06-12-18 71 29.9 39 48 22.2 19 76 29.9 37 54 22.2 22 79 29.9 41 63 22.2 17 80 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
06-11-18 70 29.9 39 47 22.2 19 71 29.9 37 49 22.2 22 77 29.9 41 54 22.2 17 79 29.9 51 61 22.2 22
06-10-18 80 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 67 29.9 37 47 22.2 22 72 29.9 41 50 22.2 17 76 29.9 51 53 22.2 22
06-09-18 74 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 78 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 72 29.9 41 50 22.2 17 72 29.9 51 52 22.2 22
06-08-18 77 29.9 39 58 22.2 19 74 29.9 37 60 22.2 22 78 29.9 41 64 22.2 17 75 29.9 51 52 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 45.7   9.1 34.2   3.2 45.8   7.1 34.3   0.2 46.8   11.1 34.5   5.2 46.8   21.1 34.2   0.2
Net Error 45.7   9.1 34.2   -3.2 45.8   7.1 34.3   -0.2 46.8   11.1 34.5   -5.2 46.8   21.1 34.2   -0.2
Std Dev 13.2   2.5 10.7   0.9 19.1   2.9 14.8   0.1 24.6   5.8 18.3   2.7 29.7   13.3 21.7   0.1

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 06-21-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-21-18 61   39 81   19 61   37 79   22 60   41 78   17 57   51 79   22
06-20-18 59 29.9 39 82 22.2 19 60   37 79   22 61   41 79   17 60   51 75   22
06-19-18 56 29.9 39 81 22.2 19 58 29.9 37 82 22.2 22 61   41 79   17 60   51 80   22
06-18-18 55 29.9 39 77 22.2 19 55 29.9 37 81 22.2 22 57 29.9 41 81 22.2 17 60   51 78   22
06-17-18 54 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 78 22.2 22 56 29.9 41 81 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 83 22.2 22
06-16-18 61 29.9 39 69 22.2 19 53 29.9 37 76 22.2 22 54 29.9 41 78 22.2 17 56 29.9 51 81 22.2 22
06-15-18 63 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 59 29.9 37 72 22.2 22 54 29.9 41 75 22.2 17 54 29.9 51 78 22.2 22
06-14-18 65 29.9 39 79 22.2 19 60 29.9 37 77 22.2 22 58 29.9 41 73 22.2 17 56 29.9 51 75 22.2 22
06-13-18 56 29.9 39 80 22.2 19 65 29.9 37 80 22.2 22 61 29.9 41 76 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 73 22.2 22
06-12-18 50 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 79 22.2 22 63 29.9 41 80 22.2 17 61 29.9 51 77 22.2 22
06-11-18 47 29.9 39 71 22.2 19 49 29.9 37 76 22.2 22 54 29.9 41 78 22.2 17 62 29.9 51 80 22.2 22
06-10-18 60 29.9 39 67 22.2 19 47 29.9 37 71 22.2 22 50 29.9 41 76 22.2 17 54 29.9 51 78 22.2 22
06-09-18 61 29.9 39 77 22.2 19 61 29.9 37 69 22.2 22 48 29.9 41 72 22.2 17 50 29.9 51 75 22.2 22
06-08-18 58 29.9 39 74 22.2 19 60 29.9 37 78 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 73 22.2 17 52 29.9 51 71 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 27.4   9.1 53.6   3.2 26.4   7.1 54.4   0.2 26.2   11.1 54.4   5.2 26.4   21.1 54.9   0.2
Net Error 27.4   9.1 53.6   -3.2 26.4   7.1 54.4   -0.2 26.2   11.1 54.4   -5.2 26.4   21.1 54.9   -0.2
Std Dev 9.0   2.5 15.5   0.9 11.7   2.9 22.4   0.1 14.0   5.8 28.5   2.7 16.8   13.3 34.8   0.1

Night Forecasts
Updated: 06-22-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
06-22-18 61   39 81   19 61   37 79   22 60   41 78   17 57   51 79   22
06-21-18 59 29.9 39 82 22.2 19 60   37 79   22 61   41 79   17 60   51 75   22
06-20-18 56 29.9 39 81 22.2 19 58 29.9 37 82 22.2 22 61   41 79   17 60   51 80   22
06-19-18 55 29.9 39 77 22.2 19 55 29.9 37 81 22.2 22 57 29.9 41 81 22.2 17 60   51 78   22
06-18-18 54 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 78 22.2 22 56 29.9 41 81 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 83 22.2 22
06-17-18 61 29.9 39 69 22.2 19 53 29.9 37 76 22.2 22 54 29.9 41 78 22.2 17 56 29.9 51 81 22.2 22
06-16-18 63 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 59 29.9 37 72 22.2 22 54 29.9 41 75 22.2 17 54 29.9 51 78 22.2 22
06-15-18 65 29.9 39 79 22.2 19 60 29.9 37 77 22.2 22 58 29.9 41 73 22.2 17 56 29.9 51 75 22.2 22
06-14-18 56 29.9 39 80 22.2 19 65 29.9 37 80 22.2 22 61 29.9 41 76 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 73 22.2 22
06-13-18 50 29.9 39 76 22.2 19 54 29.9 37 79 22.2 22 63 29.9 41 80 22.2 17 61 29.9 51 77 22.2 22
06-12-18 50 29.9 39 71 22.2 19 49 29.9 37 76 22.2 22 54 29.9 41 78 22.2 17 62 29.9 51 80 22.2 22
06-11-18 60 29.9 39 67 22.2 19 47 29.9 37 71 22.2 22 50 29.9 41 76 22.2 17 54 29.9 51 78 22.2 22
06-10-18 61 29.9 39 79 22.2 19 61 29.9 37 69 22.2 22 48 29.9 41 72 22.2 17 50 29.9 51 75 22.2 22
06-09-18 58 29.9 39 74 22.2 19 60 29.9 37 78 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 73 22.2 17 52 29.9 51 71 22.2 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     100.0
Ave Error 27.6   9.1 53.7   3.2 26.4   7.1 54.4   0.2 26.2   11.1 54.4   5.2 26.4   21.1 54.9   0.2
Net Error 27.6   9.1 53.7   -3.2 26.4   7.1 54.4   -0.2 26.2   11.1 54.4   -5.2 26.4   21.1 54.9   -0.2
Std Dev 8.9   2.5 15.5   0.9 11.7   2.9 22.4   0.1 14.0   5.8 28.5   2.7 16.8   13.3 34.8   0.1

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

MOON PHASE MISCONCEPTION...
The most common incorrect reason given for the cause of the Moon's phases is that we are seeing the shadow of the Earth on the Moon! But this cannot be correct: when the Moon passes through the shadow of the Earth, we get a lunar eclipse. Anyone who has seen a lunar eclipse, though, might remember that the Moon actually passes through the Earth's shadow only rarely, so that can't be why the Moon has phases. The real reason for the Moon's phases depends on two things: the Moon is round, and the angle it makes with the Earth and Sun changes over its orbit. - As Quoted From Bad Astronomy