WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 02-21-18 at 7:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-21-18 55   -14 38   15 54   -10 35   25 56   14 36   22 58   -7 38   19
02-20-18 33 -6.5 10 54 15.7 -10 37   16 56   -8 38   24 55   6 36   26 57   -10
02-19-18 37 12.7 0 52 2.7 12 33 -6.5 6 53 15.7 11 36   -8 56   16 38   -10 55   27
02-18-18 56 2.9 16 37 19.9 8 52 12.7 15 33 2.7 8 55 -6.5 11 37 15.7 1 57   14 39   -10
02-17-18 68 22.2 29 42 6.2 4 58 2.9 13 38 19.9 3 54 12.7 11 34 2.7 7 56 -6.5 10 33 15.7 -7
02-16-18 66 21.8 22 44 14.3 7 69 22.2 24 45 6.2 -2 59 2.9 12 40 19.9 1 55 12.7 8 37 2.7 2
02-15-18 62 29.7 21 38 -12.3 -8 65 21.8 22 41 14.3 8 69 22.2 21 43 6.2 1 63 2.9 11 39 19.9 4
02-14-18 63 48.0 7 39 21.5 47 62 29.7 21 38 -12.3 23 65 21.8 -7 41 14.3 22 69 22.2 14 43 6.2 22
02-13-18 63 -11.9 29 39 27.9 3 61 48.0 48 40 21.5 19 63 29.7 25 40 -12.3 -2 66 21.8 21 41 14.3 10
02-12-18 60 3.7 10 40 -11.9 -4 62 -11.9 26 41 27.9 -4 63 48.0 50 42 21.5 8 65 29.7 9 42 -12.3 -9
02-11-18 63 14.2 15 42 -21.0 -4 60 3.7 12 40 -11.9 -8 64 -11.9 25 43 27.9 3 65 48.0 44 43 21.5 12
02-10-18 68 12.0 16 42 -6.2 -4 67 14.2 17 42 -21.0 -2 61 3.7 14 42 -11.9 0 65 -11.9 27 42 27.9 1
02-09-18 74 6.4 10 44 -12.9 -11 67 12.0 17 42 -6.2 0 67 14.2 12 42 -21.0 -9 63 3.7 18 42 -11.9 -11
02-08-18 74 6.3 8 48 -24.8 -8 70 6.4 9 45 -12.9 -15 67 12.0 15 43 -6.2 -2 66 14.2 17 43 -21.0 -7
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 2
% Succ     23.1     7.7     25.0     0.0     27.3     0.0     10.0     20.0
Ave Error 48.1   12.0 41.7   12.1 47.6   7.7 37.8   11.9 48.9   10.7 35.5   11.6 49.6   11.9 34.2   11.4
Net Error 48.1   2.4 41.7   1.0 47.6   6.2 37.8   -0.2 48.9   3.7 35.5   -2.4 49.6   4.2 34.2   -4.6
Std Dev 20.7   13.3 19.6   9.2 24.1   10.3 21.2   11.5 29.6   12.4 21.8   8.3 32.3   9.3 23.8   9.6

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 02-20-18 at 10:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 54   11 37   -12 56   16 38   -9 55   26 36   9 57   23 36   -6
02-19-18 52 12.7 0 33 2.7 12 53   6 36   11 56   -8 38   16 55   -10 38   27
02-18-18 56 2.9 18 37 19.9 7 52 12.7 16 33 2.7 9 55   11 37   -7 57   16 39   -9
02-17-18 68 22.2 24 42 6.2 1 58 2.9 14 38 19.9 4 54 12.7 11 34 2.7 7 56   9 33   -8
02-16-18 66 21.8 20 44 12.6 6 69 22.2 23 45 6.2 2 59 2.9 12 40 19.9 1 55 12.7 8 37 2.7 2
02-15-18 62 29.7 18 38 -12.3 -9 65 21.8 23 41 12.6 10 69 22.2 22 43 6.2 1 63 2.9 11 39 19.9 4
02-14-18 63 48.0 47 39 19.7 20 62 29.7 21 38 -12.3 -4 65 21.8 24 41 12.6 18 69 22.2 21 43 6.2 -4
02-13-18 63 27.9 24 39 -11.9 4 61 48.0 48 40 19.7 19 63 29.7 21 40 -12.3 -5 66 21.8 16 41 12.6 9
02-12-18 60 3.7 5 40 -11.9 -5 62 27.9 26 41 -11.9 -2 63 48.0 50 42 19.7 8 65 29.7 9 42 -12.3 -10
02-11-18 63 14.2 14 42 -24.0 -3 60 3.7 14 40 -11.9 -8 64 27.9 21 43 -11.9 -7 65 48.0 44 43 19.7 11
02-10-18 68 12.0 14 42 -6.2 -6 67 14.2 18 42 -24.0 3 61 3.7 18 42 -11.9 3 65 27.9 24 42 -11.9 -3
02-09-18 74 6.4 8 44 -14.1 -8 67 12.0 17 42 -6.2 2 67 14.2 12 42 -24.0 -7 63 3.7 17 42 -11.9 -10
02-08-18 74 6.3 8 48 -27.3 -7 70 6.4 12 45 -14.1 -13 67 12.0 15 43 -6.2 -1 66 14.2 22 43 -24.0 -7
02-07-18 76 8.8 11 48 -17.2 -12 75 6.3 10 48 -27.3 -6 73 6.4 8 47 -14.1 -15 66 12.0 18 42 -6.2 -3
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 8 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 2
% Succ     61.5     15.4     33.3     16.7     36.4     9.1     10.0     20.0
Ave Error 48.3   4.4 46.1   8.7 46.7   4.6 45.0   9.1 45.8   4.7 43.3   8.7 44.8   7.6 41.9   7.2
Net Error 48.3   -0.4 46.1   4.9 46.7   2.9 45.0   5.2 45.8   1.1 43.3   2.0 44.8   -0.5 41.9   -0.6
Std Dev 19.4   5.0 21.0   7.0 22.7   4.0 23.3   7.7 26.5   4.7 25.8   6.3 30.2   6.8 28.8   6.1

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 02-20-18 at 5:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 54   -12 37   16 56   -8 38   25 55   14 36   21 57   -6 36   19
02-19-18 33 2.7 0 53 15.7 12 36   6 56   11 37   -8 55   16 37   -10 58   27
02-18-18 37 2.9 6 52 4.4 13 33 2.7 7 54 15.7 9 36   -8 57   15 38   -10 56   28
02-17-18 42 6.2 -1 57 19.9 13 37 2.9 8 52 4.4 13 32 2.7 7 55 15.7 9 33   -7 59   13
02-16-18 43 12.6 10 68 22.2 28 45 6.2 3 59 19.9 13 39 2.9 3 54 4.4 11 35 2.7 6 56 15.7 12
02-15-18 38 -12.3 -10 66 21.8 22 42 12.6 3 69 22.2 25 44 6.2 2 59 19.9 11 39 2.9 0 56 4.4 11
02-14-18 39 19.7 19 62 29.7 21 38 -12.3 -8 65 21.8 22 41 12.6 15 69 22.2 19 43 6.2 -4 63 19.9 10
02-13-18 40 -11.9 26 63 48.0 4 40 19.7 50 63 29.7 18 40 -12.3 21 66 21.8 -5 44 12.6 19 68 22.2 9
02-12-18 39 27.1 -8 63 -11.9 21 41 -11.9 -6 62 48.0 52 41 19.7 11 63 29.7 13 42 -12.3 -8 68 21.8 11
02-11-18 42 -24.0 -11 60 3.7 9 40 27.1 -9 64 -11.9 26 41 -11.9 2 64 48.0 46 42 19.7 8 65 29.7 9
02-10-18 42 -6.2 -5 65 14.2 13 41 -24.0 2 60 3.7 17 40 27.1 -3 65 -11.9 23 44 -11.9 -7 67 48.0 49
02-09-18 45 -14.1 -17 68 12.0 15 42 -6.2 1 67 14.2 14 42 -24.0 0 61 3.7 17 42 27.1 -4 65 -11.9 23
02-08-18 47 -27.3 -10 73 6.4 9 46 -14.1 -11 67 12.0 17 42 -6.2 -5 67 14.2 12 43 -24.0 -10 63 3.7 15
02-07-18 47 -17.2 -9 74 6.3 8 48 -27.3 -4 73 6.4 10 47 -14.1 -15 69 12.0 16 43 -6.2 -1 67 14.2 20
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ     15.4     23.1     0.0     16.7     27.3     9.1     0.0     10.0
Ave Error 44.3   10.3 48.6   9.6 43.1   13.2 47.4   8.4 40.6   11.2 46.6   11.4 40.0   9.4 47.0   11.8
Net Error 44.3   2.4 48.6   -0.3 43.1   5.1 47.4   4.2 40.6   3.2 46.6   -0.7 40.0   -1.8 47.0   0.1
Std Dev 21.3   12.4 20.0   12.9 22.8   12.1 24.0   10.2 24.6   11.8 28.1   11.3 26.6   6.9 30.1   8.6

Night Forecasts
Updated: 02-20-18 at 7:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 37   -14 56   15 38   -10 54   25 35   14 56   22 36   -7 59   19
02-19-18 33 2.7 7 53 15.7 10 36   -9 56   16 37   -14 55   27 37   10 58   22
02-18-18 37 2.9 1 52 12.7 12 33 2.7 6 54 15.7 11 36   -8 57   16 38   -10 56   27
02-17-18 42 6.2 4 57 19.9 14 38 2.9 8 52 12.7 13 32 2.7 6 55 15.7 8 35   -7 59   13
02-16-18 43 12.6 14 68 22.2 24 45 6.2 2 59 19.9 13 39 2.9 3 54 12.7 11 35 2.7 6 56 15.7 12
02-15-18 38 -12.3 -13 66 21.8 21 42 12.6 3 69 22.2 26 44 6.2 3 59 19.9 11 39 2.9 -1 56 12.7 11
02-14-18 39 19.7 23 62 29.7 25 38 -12.3 -6 65 21.8 23 41 12.6 16 69 22.2 19 43 6.2 -3 63 19.9 9
02-13-18 40 -11.9 4 63 48.0 48 40 19.7 21 63 29.7 23 40 -12.3 -7 66 21.8 22 44 12.6 14 68 22.2 22
02-12-18 39 -11.9 -2 63 27.9 26 41 -11.9 3 62 48.0 46 41 19.7 12 63 29.7 16 42 -12.3 -7 68 21.8 14
02-11-18 42 -24.0 -12 60 3.7 8 40 -11.9 -3 64 27.9 21 41 -11.9 -4 64 48.0 47 42 19.7 10 65 29.7 11
02-10-18 42 -6.2 -4 65 14.2 13 41 -24.0 1 60 3.7 16 40 -11.9 -4 65 27.9 22 44 -11.9 -8 67 48.0 49
02-09-18 45 -14.1 -14 68 12.0 15 42 -6.2 0 67 14.2 16 42 -24.0 -3 61 3.7 14 42 -11.9 -6 65 27.9 29
02-08-18 47 -27.3 -13 73 6.4 9 46 -14.1 -11 67 12.0 15 42 -6.2 -6 67 14.2 16 43 -24.0 -9 63 3.7 15
02-07-18 47 -17.2 -7 74 6.3 10 48 -27.3 -5 70 6.4 11 47 -14.1 -14 67 12.0 16 43 -6.2 -1 66 14.2 19
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 4 0 6 0 1 0 4 0 3 0 4 0 1 0 4
% Succ     30.8     46.2     8.3     33.3     27.3     36.4     10.0     40.0
Ave Error 47.3   6.0 44.9   2.8 46.5   9.2 43.2   4.5 44.1   5.5 42.0   5.3 43.9   6.3 42.1   6.1
Net Error 47.3   5.3 44.9   -0.4 46.5   6.9 43.2   -0.0 44.1   3.5 42.0   -2.3 43.9   1.7 42.1   -2.5
Std Dev 19.9   5.5 17.7   2.0 22.7   7.1 20.5   3.7 25.5   3.7 23.6   4.6 29.5   4.7 26.8   6.3

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

HUMIDITY
Humidity or relative humidity measures the amount of water vapor in the air relative to the temperature. It is important in weather because humidity affects how humans feel. A hot, humid day feels hotter because we cannot sweat as effectively. A cool, dry day feels colder because moisture evaporates more easily.