WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 04-25-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-25-18 61   39 38   19 51   37 33   22 57   41 30   17 58   51 38   22
04-24-18 53 ↓ 29.9 39 28 22.2 19 61   37 39   22 52   41 30   17 60   51 31   22
04-23-18 64 29.9 39 39 22.2 19 52 29.9 37 28 22.2 22 60   41 37   17 50   51 28   22
04-22-18 61 29.9 39 41 22.2 19 64 29.9 37 36 22.2 22 51 29.9 41 29 22.2 17 58   51 35   22
04-21-18 58 29.9 39 36 22.2 19 62 ↓ 29.9 37 41 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 36 22.2 17 49 29.9 51 29 22.2 22
04-20-18 56 ↓ 29.9 39 31 22.2 19 58 ↓ 29.9 37 35 22.2 22 59 29.9 41 39 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 37 22.2 22
04-19-18 56 ↓ 29.9 39 30 22.2 19 54 ↓ 29.9 37 31 22.2 22 61 29.9 41 35 22.2 17 63 29.9 51 37 22.2 22
04-18-18 47 29.9 39 27 22.2 19 51 29.9 37 29 22.2 22 53 29.9 41 31 22.2 17 55 29.9 51 36 22.2 22
04-17-18 45 29.9 39 28 22.2 19 43 29.9 37 27 22.2 22 48 29.9 41 29 22.2 17 50 29.9 51 30 22.2 22
04-16-18 40 29.9 39 22 22.2 19 45 29.9 37 27 22.2 22 40 29.9 41 28 22.2 17 46 29.9 51 28 22.2 22
04-15-18 35 29.9 39 20 22.2 19 40 29.9 37 21 22.2 22 46 29.9 41 27 22.2 17 41 29.9 51 27 22.2 22
04-14-18 35 ↓ 29.9 39 19 22.2 19 33 29.9 37 19 22.2 22 41 29.9 41 23 22.2 17 43 29.9 51 27 22.2 22
04-13-18 37 29.9 42 20 22.2 25 36 ↓ 29.9 40 18 22.2 25 39 29.9 42 19 22.2 17 44 29.9 51 23 22.2 22
04-12-18 40 32.8 29 25 22.2 42 36 29.9 28 19 22.2 39 37 29.9 28 18 22.2 39 37 29.9 23 17 22.2 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 10 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 9
% Succ     0.0 7.7   0.0     8.3 8.3   83.3     9.1 9.1   0.0     0.0 10.0   90.0
Ave Error 18.1   8.9 7.2   4.4 17.9   6.9 7.4   1.8 18.9   10.4 7.7   6.3 18.8   19.7 7.9   2.6
Net Error 18.1   8.3 6.0   -1.0 17.9   6.6 5.4   1.5 18.9   10.0 6.3   -3.2 18.8   18.3 6.9   2.2
Std Dev 10.9   2.6 5.9   1.7 11.5   2.8 5.7   1.6 12.1   5.4 5.5   3.4 13.3   12.5 6.2   2.4

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 04-25-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-25-18 61   39 38   19 51   37 33   22 57   41 30   17 58   51 38   22
04-24-18 53 ↓ 29.9 39 28 22.2 19 61   37 39   22 52   41 30   17 60   51 31   22
04-23-18 64 29.9 39 39 22.2 19 52 29.9 37 28 22.2 22 60   41 37   17 50   51 28   22
04-22-18 66 29.9 39 41 22.2 19 64 29.9 37 36 22.2 22 51 29.9 41 29 22.2 17 58   51 35   22
04-21-18 58 29.9 39 36 22.2 19 62 ↓ 29.9 37 41 22.2 22 62 29.9 41 36 22.2 17 49 29.9 51 29 22.2 22
04-20-18 56 29.9 39 31 22.2 19 58 ↓ 29.9 37 35 22.2 22 59 29.9 41 39 22.2 17 59 29.9 51 37 22.2 22
04-19-18 54 29.9 39 30 22.2 19 54 ↓ 29.9 37 31 22.2 22 61 29.9 41 35 22.2 17 63 29.9 51 37 22.2 22
04-18-18 48 29.9 39 27 22.2 19 51 29.9 37 29 22.2 22 53 29.9 41 31 22.2 17 55 29.9 51 36 22.2 22
04-17-18 47 ↓ 29.9 39 28 22.2 19 43 29.9 37 27 22.2 22 48 29.9 41 29 22.2 17 50 29.9 51 30 22.2 22
04-16-18 37 29.9 39 22 22.2 19 45 29.9 37 27 22.2 22 40 29.9 41 28 22.2 17 46 29.9 51 28 22.2 22
04-15-18 32 29.9 39 20 22.2 19 40 29.9 37 21 22.2 22 46 29.9 41 27 22.2 17 41 29.9 51 27 22.2 22
04-14-18 34 29.9 39 19 22.2 19 33 29.9 37 19 22.2 22 41 29.9 41 23 22.2 17 43 29.9 51 27 22.2 22
04-13-18 37 29.9 39 20 22.2 19 36 ↓ 29.9 37 18 22.2 22 39 29.9 41 19 22.2 17 44 29.9 51 23 22.2 22
04-12-18 40 ↓ 29.9 29 25 22.2 42 36 29.9 28 19 22.2 39 37 29.9 28 18 22.2 39 37 29.9 23 17 22.2 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 11 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 9
% Succ     7.7 7.7   0.0     8.3 8.3   91.7     9.1 9.1   0.0     0.0 10.0   90.0
Ave Error 18.3   8.5 7.2   4.5 17.9   6.7 7.4   1.6 18.9   10.3 7.7   6.3 18.8   19.7 7.9   2.6
Net Error 18.3   8.3 6.0   -1.4 17.9   6.4 5.4   1.2 18.9   9.9 6.3   -3.2 18.8   18.3 6.9   2.2
Std Dev 11.9   2.4 5.9   1.7 11.5   2.8 5.7   1.4 12.1   5.4 5.5   3.4 13.3   12.5 6.2   2.4

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 04-25-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-25-18 39   39 52   19 37   37 51   22 29   41 57   17 37   51 68   22
04-24-18 29 29.9 39 61 22.2 19 39   37 51   22 31   41 59   17 31   51 60   22
04-23-18 38 29.9 39 53 22.2 19 28 29.9 37 60 22.2 22 38   41 51   17 30   51 58   22
04-22-18 42 29.9 39 66 22.2 19 37 29.9 37 52 22.2 22 29 29.9 41 60 22.2 17 37   51 49   22
04-21-18 35 29.9 39 62 22.2 19 40 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 36 29.9 41 51 22.2 17 30 29.9 51 57 22.2 22
04-20-18 29 29.9 39 60 ↓ 22.2 19 35 29.9 37 65 22.2 22 40 29.9 41 62 22.2 17 36 29.9 51 50 22.2 22
04-19-18 29 29.9 39 54 22.2 19 31 29.9 37 56 22.2 22 35 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 39 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
04-18-18 27 29.9 39 52 22.2 19 29 29.9 37 53 22.2 22 30 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 36 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
04-17-18 29 29.9 39 44 22.2 19 26 29.9 37 50 22.2 22 28 29.9 41 52 22.2 17 30 29.9 51 54 22.2 22
04-16-18 21 29.9 39 45 ↓ 22.2 19 28 29.9 37 39 22.2 22 28 29.9 41 45 22.2 17 28 29.9 51 51 22.2 22
04-15-18 21 29.9 39 40 22.2 19 21 29.9 37 45 22.2 22 27 29.9 41 40 22.2 17 29 29.9 51 47 22.2 22
04-14-18 19 29.9 39 33 ↓ 22.2 19 20 29.9 37 41 22.2 22 21 29.9 41 44 22.2 17 26 29.9 51 41 22.2 22
04-13-18 18 29.9 39 36 22.2 19 19 29.9 37 36 22.2 22 19 29.9 41 43 22.2 17 23 29.9 51 46 22.2 22
04-12-18 25 29.9 29 36 22.2 42 20 29.9 28 38 22.2 39 18 29.9 28 39 22.2 39 18 29.9 23 44 22.2 46
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 1 0 0 4 1 0 11 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 9
% Succ 30.8   7.7     0.0 33.3   8.3     91.7 36.4   9.1     0.0 40.0   0.0     90.0
Ave Error 5.9   8.5 27.2   4.5 6.0   6.7 27.6   1.6 5.5   10.3 28.2   6.3 4.7   19.7 28.9   2.6
Net Error -2.1   8.3 27.2   -1.4 -2.1   6.4 27.6   1.2 -1.6   9.9 28.2   -3.2 -0.4   18.3 28.9   2.2
Std Dev 4.5   2.4 12.5   1.7 4.1   2.8 13.8   1.4 4.2   5.4 16.2   3.4 4.0   12.5 18.9   2.4

Night Forecasts
Updated: 04-25-18 at 8:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
04-25-18 29   39 61   19 39   37 51   22 31   41 59   17 31   51 60   22
04-24-18 38 29.9 39 53 22.2 19 28   37 60   22 38   41 51   17 30   51 58   22
04-23-18 44 29.9 39 66 22.2 19 37 29.9 37 52 22.2 22 29   41 60   17 37   51 49   22
04-22-18 37 29.9 39 62 22.2 19 40 29.9 37 62 22.2 22 36 29.9 41 51 22.2 17 30   51 57   22
04-21-18 29 29.9 39 60 22.2 19 35 29.9 37 65 22.2 22 40 29.9 41 62 22.2 17 36 29.9 51 50 22.2 22
04-20-18 28 29.9 39 54 ↓ 22.2 19 31 29.9 37 56 22.2 22 35 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 39 29.9 51 59 22.2 22
04-19-18 27 29.9 39 52 22.2 19 29 29.9 37 53 22.2 22 30 29.9 41 59 22.2 17 36 29.9 51 62 22.2 22
04-18-18 29 29.9 39 45 22.2 19 26 29.9 37 52 22.2 22 28 29.9 41 52 22.2 17 30 29.9 51 54 22.2 22
04-17-18 21 29.9 39 45 ↓ 22.2 19 28 29.9 37 39 22.2 22 28 29.9 41 45 22.2 17 28 29.9 51 51 22.2 22
04-16-18 21 29.9 39 40 22.2 19 21 29.9 37 45 22.2 22 27 29.9 41 40 22.2 17 29 29.9 51 47 22.2 22
04-15-18 19 29.9 39 33 ↓ 22.2 19 20 29.9 37 41 22.2 22 21 29.9 41 44 22.2 17 26 29.9 51 41 22.2 22
04-14-18 20 29.9 39 36 22.2 19 19 29.9 37 36 22.2 22 19 29.9 41 43 22.2 17 23 29.9 51 46 22.2 22
04-13-18 22 29.9 29 36 22.2 42 20 29.9 28 38 22.2 39 18 29.9 28 39 22.2 39 18 29.9 23 44 22.2 46
04-12-18 29 32.0 29 40 32.8 39 25 29.9 26 37 22.2 35 18 29.9 23 35 22.2 35 15 29.9 18 37 22.2 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 1 0 0 3 1 0 10 3 1 0 0 3 0 0 8
% Succ 23.1   7.7     0.0 25.0   8.3     83.3 27.3   9.1     0.0 30.0   0.0     80.0
Ave Error 6.6   8.0 24.8   4.7 6.2   6.4 25.8   2.6 6.5   9.9 25.9   6.9 6.2   18.8 26.9   4.3
Net Error -2.1   7.4 24.8   -0.7 -2.3   5.4 25.8   2.3 -2.6   8.3 25.9   -1.6 -1.9   15.0 26.9   4.0
Std Dev 4.3   3.1 12.3   4.6 4.2   2.7 13.6   2.5 4.7   5.3 15.2   3.9 4.9   12.0 17.9   4.2

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

RAIN FALL
Terms such as "slight chance" of rain (10-20%), "chance" of rain (30-50%) or rain "likely" (60-70%) are used when there is uncertainty of receiving measurable precipitation anywhere in the forecast area. For instance, if there is only a 30-50 percent chance that rain will fall anywhere in the Bemidji area, then the forecast will call for a "chance" of rain.