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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Morning Forecasts
Updated: 09-06-10 at 6:25 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-06-10 66   59 46   47 55   58 40   38 63   62 43   41 58   63 50   52
09-05-10 67 65.1 65 46 38.4 45 65   61 46   53 58   64 42   43 63   64 46   47
09-04-10 62 63.7 62 39 40.4 39 67 65.1 67 47 38.4 44 66   66 49   51 60   54 43   40
09-03-10 58 60.9 57 41 47.9 40 62 63.7 63 40 40.4 38 67 65.1 70 48 38.4 45 69   67 49   53
09-02-10 65 68.7 62 48 58.6 51 59 60.9 61 42 47.9 44 63 63.7 63 41 40.4 41 68 65.1 68 49 38.4 45
09-01-10 74 74.8 70 56 47.0 55 64 68.7 62 49 58.6 51 62 60.9 59 44 47.9 43 65 63.7 58 46 40.4 40
08-31-10 77 72.7 75 47 67.7 54 73 74.8 73 54 47.0 57 66 68.7 64 51 58.6 52 65 60.9 63 46 47.9 45
08-30-10 86 85.1 92 68 73.2 70 78 72.7 83 51 67.7 57 74 74.8 75 53 47.0 59 69 68.7 63 49 58.6 53
08-29-10 87 86.4 91 69 68.1 66 88 85.1 88 62 73.2 70 75 72.7 77 52 67.7 57 73 74.8 75 50 47.0 56
08-28-10 83 83.1 87 61 62.9 64 87 86.4 87 64 68.1 65 84 85.1 89 61 73.2 68 72 72.7 73 53 67.7 57
08-27-10 84 84.8 83 61 59.3 62 82 83.1 87 63 62.9 62 85 86.4 87 64 68.1 65 80 85.1 89 60 73.2 66
08-26-10 78 76.5 74 57 46.6 52 83 84.8 86 61 59.3 63 83 83.1 88 62 62.9 64 83 86.4 86 63 68.1 66
08-24-10 72 70.5 74 49 49.1 48 73 76.5 71 47 46.6 43 80 84.8 81 58 59.3 50 82 83.1 87 61 62.9 55
08-23-10 89 86.6 96 57 70.7 66 71 70.5 72 49 49.1 50 72 76.5 70 48 46.6 47 77 84.8 79 55 59.3 53
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 9 3 5 3 8 7 5 2 7 4 4 3 5 3 2 1
% Succ 69.2   23.1 38.5   23.1 66.7   58.3 41.7   16.7 63.6   36.4 36.4   27.3 50.0   30.0 20.0   10.0
Avg Error 1.8   4.0 6.9   5.0 2.3   3.1 5.5   4.6 1.9   3.3 5.8   5.5 2.8   3.1 7.0   5.9
Net Error 0.2   0.7 -2.4   -1.4 -0.4   0.6 -2.5   -1.3 -1.0   0.1 -2.6   -1.7 -1.1   -0.4 -3.1   -2.7
Std Dev 1.3   2.2 5.8   3.8 1.6   3.1 5.2   3.5 1.2   2.4 5.1   4.2 2.2   2.6 5.6   4.6

Afternoon Forecasts
Updated: 09-06-10 at 12:25 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-06-10 64   66 46   52 55   58 40   41 63   61 43   42 58   62 50   51
09-05-10 65 65.1 67 46 45.5 50 65   62 46   53 58   60 42   39 63   65 46   51
09-04-10 64 63.7 62 39 38.4 39 67 65.1 67 47 45.5 44 66   66 49   51 60   54 43   40
09-03-10 58 60.9 57 41 40.4 40 62 63.7 63 40 38.4 37 67 65.1 68 48 45.5 44 69   66 49   51
09-02-10 66 68.7 64 48 47.9 51 59 60.9 60 42 40.4 43 63 63.7 63 41 38.4 39 68 65.1 69 49 45.5 47
09-01-10 74 74.8 76 56 58.6 58 64 68.7 62 49 47.9 54 62 60.9 64 44 40.4 45 65 63.7 63 46 38.4 41
08-31-10 77 72.7 77 47 47.0 54 73 74.8 76 54 58.6 59 66 68.7 70 51 47.9 50 65 60.9 62 44 40.4 42
08-30-10 89 85.1 88 68 67.7 71 78 72.7 81 51 47.0 62 74 74.8 77 53 58.6 60 69 68.7 67 49 47.9 49
08-29-10 87 86.4 89 69 73.2 66 88 85.1 89 62 67.7 70 75 72.7 82 52 47.0 59 73 74.8 76 50 58.6 60
08-28-10 83 83.1 84 61 68.1 65 87 86.4 90 64 73.2 67 84 85.1 89 61 67.7 68 72 72.7 74 53 47.0 54
08-27-10 84 84.8 87 61 62.9 62 82 83.1 85 63 68.1 63 85 86.4 86 64 73.2 66 80 85.1 81 60 67.7 62
08-26-10 78 76.5 79 57 59.3 56 83 84.8 91 61 62.9 60 83 83.1 89 62 68.1 63 83 86.4 89 63 73.2 66
08-25-10 72 70.5 72 46 46.6 46 79 76.5 81 59 59.3 53 86 84.8 92 62 62.9 60 83 83.1 92 62 68.1 60
08-24-10 69 66.6 74 49 49.1 48 73 70.5 71 47 46.6 43 80 76.5 81 58 59.3 50 82 84.8 91 61 62.9 58
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 5 9 6 7 6 7 3 8 3 2 4 5 5 2 4
% Succ 61.5   38.5 69.2   46.2 58.3   50.0 58.3   25.0 72.7   27.3 18.2   36.4 50.0   50.0 20.0   40.0
Avg Error 1.7   2.9 1.6   2.7 2.4   3.4 3.1   4.4 1.5   3.8 4.2   4.3 2.2   3.2 5.6   4.1
Net Error 0.5   1.3 -1.3   0.1 0.2   2.0 -1.4   -0.0 0.3   3.6 -1.2   -0.5 -0.5   1.9 -1.3   -1.1
Std Dev 1.4   1.4 2.0   2.4 1.6   2.7 2.6   4.1 1.0   3.1 2.9   4.0 1.8   2.5 4.1   3.3

Evening Forecasts
Updated: 09-06-10 at 6:25 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-06-10 45   50 56   57 38   40 63   61 43   39 64   64 50   48 66   59
09-05-10 45 45.5 46 66 65.1 63 46   53 57   55 42   40 63   60 43   43 58   55
09-04-10 38 38.4 40 67 63.7 66 46 45.5 46 65 65.1 67 47   52 58   54 44   40 65   60
09-03-10 41 40.4 42 62 60.9 64 40 38.4 39 67 63.7 68 48 45.5 48 66 65.1 69 49   51 65   58
09-02-10 48 47.9 53 60 68.7 55 40 40.4 36 62 60.9 60 40 38.4 35 68 63.7 68 49 45.5 43 69 65.1 68
09-01-10 56 58.6 57 64 74.8 61 49 47.9 51 62 68.7 57 44 40.4 39 65 60.9 58 46 38.4 36 70 63.7 64
08-31-10 49 47.0 58 77 72.7 75 56 58.6 57 67 74.8 64 51 47.9 52 68 68.7 62 44 40.4 44 70 60.9 64
08-30-10 69 67.7 73 78 85.1 78 51 47.0 60 73 72.7 75 53 58.6 60 66 74.8 72 52 47.9 55 66 68.7 64
08-29-10 69 73.2 89 87 86.4 67 68 67.7 87 78 85.1 66 52 47.0 76 74 72.7 57 50 58.6 70 69 74.8 59
08-28-10 64 68.1 64 86 83.1 86 67 73.2 63 86 86.4 86 65 67.7 68 76 85.1 75 53 47.0 57 71 72.7 76
08-27-10 60 62.9 65 82 84.8 92 62 68.1 62 85 83.1 86 64 73.2 64 81 86.4 85 60 67.7 67 74 85.1 73
08-26-10 56 59.3 59 83 76.5 88 60 62.9 63 82 84.8 89 62 68.1 64 83 83.1 90 63 73.2 66 80 86.4 82
08-25-10 46 46.6 44 77 70.5 80 58 59.3 55 84 76.5 90 61 62.9 60 81 84.8 88 62 68.1 62 82 83.1 88
08-24-10 49 49.1 47 70 66.6 71 47 46.6 43 76 70.5 79 57 59.3 49 82 76.5 90 62 62.9 59 83 84.8 91
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 5 3 0 7 4 5 3 2 3 4 1 1 1 3 1
% Succ 61.5   38.5 23.1   0.0 58.3   33.3 41.7   25.0 18.2   27.3 36.4   9.1 10.0   10.0 30.0   10.0
Avg Error 1.7   4.1 4.5   7.6 2.3   5.6 3.7   6.7 4.0   6.2 4.0   6.5 5.8   5.5 5.0   5.8
Net Error -1.1   2.5 0.0   -1.0 -1.0   0.5 -0.4   -0.4 -1.1   0.5 -1.1   -0.7 -0.9   0.9 -1.1   -1.6
Std Dev 1.5   4.4 3.3   5.7 2.2   6.0 3.0   6.0 2.8   8.3 3.4   5.1 4.0   4.5 3.7   5.4

Night Forecasts
Updated: 09-05-10 at 2:25 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-05-10 38   37 67   66 46   49 65   65 47   52 58   59 44   39 65   65
09-03-10 48 40.4 51 60 63.7 57 40   43 62   62 40   38 68   68 49   43 69   68
09-01-10 49 58.6 49 77 68.7 72 56 40.4 56 67 63.7 63 51   55 68   58 44   45 70   64
08-30-10 69 67.7 71 87 72.7 88 68 58.6 72 78 68.7 80 52 40.4 57 74 63.7 73 50   59 69   66
08-28-10 59 68.1 62 82 86.4 88 62 67.7 61 85 72.7 87 64 58.6 65 81 68.7 90 60 40.4 66 74 63.7 73
08-26-10 47 59.3 47 77 84.8 77 58 68.1 53 84 86.4 85 61 67.7 66 81 72.7 90 62 58.6 68 82 68.7 86
08-24-10 55 49.1 60 70 70.5 72 46 59.3 50 69 84.8 70 46 68.1 42 76 86.4 78 56 67.7 49 83 72.7 87
08-22-10 58 70.7 60 91 86.6 87 67 49.1 60 81 70.5 94 58 59.3 68 70 84.8 73 47 68.1 54 71 86.4 75
08-20-10 58 59.1 61 77 83.5 74 58 70.7 56 82 86.6 82 59 49.1 60 85 70.5 86 64 59.3 65 81 84.8 85
08-18-10 55 45.9 60 69 72.8 72 48 59.1 53 74 83.5 75 55 70.7 58 74 86.6 78 57 49.1 56 81 70.5 85
08-16-10 46 39.7 46 68 75.8 69 44 45.9 45 74 72.8 75 53 59.1 51 73 83.5 70 52 70.7 53 70 86.6 73
08-14-10 60 55.7 63 72 69.0 81 54 39.7 57 69 75.8 71 52 45.9 48 68 72.8 65 49 59.1 40 70 83.5 72
08-12-10 66 61.5 58 86 79.0 86 65 55.7 63 81 69.0 86 61 39.7 70 76 75.8 78 55 45.9 61 69 72.8 70
08-10-10 66 67.6 62 85 82.3 92 65 61.5 67 82 79.0 85 62 55.7 66 83 69.0 89 60 39.7 73 79 75.8 90
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 1 1 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ 23.1   7.7 7.7   30.8 8.3   8.3 8.3   16.7 9.1   9.1 9.1   0.0     0.0     10.0
Avg Error 6.6   7.9 5.7   6.3 10.4   10.2 7.6   9.1 10.2   12.2 10.2   12.3 12.7   16.6 10.1   10.9
Net Error -0.6   0.5 0.4   1.5 1.3   1.4 1.0   3.3 0.8   3.3 0.6   3.2 0.3   2.6 -0.6   3.1
Std Dev 4.0   4.2 3.6   4.7 5.9   6.2 5.1   7.4 7.5   8.7 5.8   7.5 9.7   12.0 7.0   8.1

Minnesota Random Weather Facts

CLOUD HEIGHT
The cloud height on this site is an estimate of cumulus clouds using a formula based on temperature and dew point. Actual measurements of cloud height are made with a Micropulse Lidar (MPL). This device fires a laser into the sky and measures the backscattered signal. Costs for such a device are beyond the scope of weather hobbyists.